Appointing a General is the Government's Prerogative, but ...

Selecting and appointing a Chief to any country's Army or to any wing of its forces should be the prerogative of the Government. This position can be defended by invoking Chanakya or Machiavelli. But, one could even invoke Rawls' justice. In particular, the first part of the second principle of justice by Rawls conveys that selection of people to positions of power should be based on merit after provisioning for equal opportunities. Hence, India cannot be an exception to that.

One may question my invoking Rawls' principles meant for a democratic polity to the selection of an Army Chief. I agree that a democratic polity by, for and of the people is more about peace and prosperity. Nevertheless, it is a bitter irony that war-preparedness has become an important aspect of statecraft, democratic or not. In fact, in a federal structure like the United States of America with states having a larger say in domestic matters (more than that of India) one of the three most important roles of the American President is on defence (defend sovereignty for America and its allies and also to maintain 'global' order); the other two important roles being external affairs (diplomatic relationship with the committee of nations as also multilateral agencies or one may say to retain one-upmanship) and the treasury (common money unit, dollar, which in some sense also happens to be a 'global' currency). Though, Rawls is cautious and avoids extending his analysis across countries, one has to concede that defence cannot be dealt in isolation in any country and the selection of an Army Chief ought to be considered as an important feature even in a democratic polity and one ought to go by merit.      

The Government of the day has to do the selection of the Army Chief keeping in view its requirement. General Bikram Singh has put it succinctly that "the Chief designate would be well placed to deal with all operational contingencies, even in the worst possible two-front scenario, wherein both China and Pakistan may pose conventional threat to our territorial integrity" and according to the Ministry of Defence "had an edge owing to his vast experience in the asymmetric operations in the Kashmir valley, our north eastern states and the United Nations mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo." 

The core question that comes into the selection of Lieutenant General Bipin Rawat as the Chief designate of the Indian Army is the supersession of two other contenders (Lieutenant General Praveen Bakshi and Lieutenant General PM Hariz) who were senior to him. This becomes a questionmark if the basis of seniority was based on their merit-based selection to their current positions and not because of their date of induction into the Indian Army or by their age or some such criteria. 

It goes without question that a professional organisation like the Indian Army promotes its cadre based on merit at all levels. It is for this that the public ought to know the basis of current seniority and that there was a technical reason that came in the way and Lieutenant General Bipin Rawat could not have been elevated to the position of Lieutenant General before Lieutenant General Praveen Bakshi and Lieutenant General PM Hariz.

If there is no technical reason that defines the current seniority then it is necessary to explain the reasons that led to the current hierarchy and the change in requirement between then and now. Even if there has been no change in requirement, it is necessary to know current requirement and the experience details that the three officers or all the contenders (five senior most officers) have had. Unfortunately, there is not much in the public domain that I could lay my hands on. I leave that aside for someone who could lay their hands on those details. Instead, I will read between the lines and raise some possible conjectures on the requirement by the Government.

My first conjecture is as follows. If making Lieutenant General Praveen Bakshi as Chief designate would have meant that the person next in succession would have been Lieutenant General PM Hariz, a  Muslim, and the Government wanted to avoid that. Further, preempting that now rather than act on that after Lieutenant General Bakshi's tenure would have raised greater concerns later and the Governent wanted to avoid that.

My second conjecture is as follows. It is quite possible that elevating Lieutenant General Praveen Bakshi and Lieutenant General PM Hariz in succession could have led to shorter tenures for two successive Chiefs and the Government wanted to avoid that. 

My third conjecture would on the requirement of the Government today will draw from General Bikarm Singh's above-mentioned post where he mentions that the advantages of the Chief designate will "not only allow the continuity in our counter proxy war and counterinsurgency operations, but also give the government options to up the ante along the Line of Control (LoC), should that be necessary." This has to be read between the lines.

In General Bikran Singh's write-up, a case is being articulated on 'continuity' and also in providing option to 'up the ante'. Are these signs of an impeding war? One is aware of its ramifications on patriotism and its implications on polity when ante are upped close to the elections (for instance Iraq war and its impact on American polity). Will there be a war-like scenario in the near future in India? Is this in anticipation of what our neighbours are likely to plan or will it be necessitated by an electoral calculation? Will there be an implicit unspoken collusion by leaders across the boarder, as it would be to their domestic political advantage? All these need to be answered in due course.

Whether selecting the next Army Chief in India is about facilitating peace and prosperity or it is about a tacit war-like scenario has a thin line differentiating the two and only time will tell. But, let us be forewarned and work towards a peaceful and friendly co-existence with our neighbours and also within the country with ourselves. Let me paraphrase Pope Francis' Christmas message of 2016 to convey that we need to free ourselves from the hostage of materialism and from that of indifference. 

I completely agree and defend the position that appointing a General is the Government's prerogative, but in a democratic-polity by, for and of the people there should be concern and engagement, as in its absence democracy itself will be at bay.

Demon-et-ise: 2K view

Earlier I had shared my one-paise view on demonetisation. Here, I would like to share my 2K view or the demons of 2K. Before you lay any apprehensions, I must take you aside for a moment and say that my concern for these demons does not in any way support other demons - black money, counterfeit money or terror funding money. I reiterate that I am against all these three demons, which I will now refer to as dark matter, an euphemism to avoid being called a racist or anything that is not politically appropriate (not withstanding the fact that dark matter is a cosmological constant attributed to contribute to expansion of universe).

Perceptions matter
Use of image at source.

My concerns for 2K are in some sense related to the Y2K problem. Or, should I say related to the bug problem, which is intertwined with the computational or mathematical logic. For transactional purposes, getting a 2K note is a restriction (given the paucity of 0.5K notes), one would be in need of at least 15 notes of 0.1K from the receiver for transactions below 0.5K. The need of the hour would have been 0.2K notes along with more of 0.5K notes and should have done away with 2K notes. Besides, more of 2K notes will add to the dark matter (all three demons) and lead to an expansion of the universe that will end with a big explosion (unless of course the universe has neither any beginning nor an end).

If you are of the view that the current dispensation is not thought through the dispensing of the 2K and 0.5K notes then you are mistaken. These notes are not going to replace the old notes withdrawn, neither now nor any time in the future. This, as of now, is a given; something akin to a cosmological constant, but without the dark matter. 

To state that the universe is finite with its existence being infinite can be a point of view, subject to verification. However, if one takes a similar position with regard to the economy then my existence (as an economist) will definitely become finite. 

Nevertheless, with trepidation, I assume (not presume, as I want to leave some safety valve for my survival) that the new 2K and 0.5K notes are meant to have a finite existence and are not going to replace the old 1K and 0.5K notes. One strong reason for this assumption being that the 2K notes (along with the new 0.5K notes) will add to the dark matter (the three demons). 

One also feels that one is not going to see the 0.2K notes to come to our rescue any time soon. Given the mammoth task of getting even the limited amount of 2K notes and new 0.5K notes to circulation, this will not be physically possible.

The new normal is that we are moving into a digital world (tending towards cashless). The sooner all of us understand this and plan to adjust to this new normal (whether we agree with it or not) the better for all of us. Now, if the economy (nay, universe) is constant and there are substantive changes in the nature of internal transactions then some will gain and some will lose. 

It is imperative now to know whether those who will gain on account of 'facilitating' the transition into a digital transaction have any checks and balances on their rent-seeking returns. Are our institutions geared towards recognising and addressing these concerns. What would be the cost of internet accessibility and transaction charges? What would be its implication on the poor and the vulnerable? 

We also need to be concerned about dark matter beyond the above-mentioned three demons and have adequate safeguards for card cloning, data theft, phishing, pharming, smising and vishing among others. Do we have human resources to train the entire population and enable them to guard against such incidents? Will there be space for sovereign guarantee under such circumstances?

Further, as we will be moving towards an automated world, as is being globally talked about then what would be the implications. Is it not appropriate that we also start discussing the need for a universal basic income, as the need for that, at least for certain sections like those dependent on agriculture indicated through incidence of higher farmers' suicides (notwithstanding efforts at their underreporting), is already knocking at our doors.

Demonetisation: one paise view

Caveat: This is indeed a one-paise view. If you are in search of serious stuff, pardon me. However, this is not for the light-hearted.

Some of you might have heard of the hindi film song paanch rupaiya baara anna from the 1958 Chalti ka naam gaddi. Is it a mere coincidence that this song followed the demonetisatioin of the anna (its history lies in Kishore Kumar's udhari in the college canteen perhaps before demonetisation), or, should I say the conversion into the metric system from one rupee equals sixteen annas to one rupee equals hundred paise. Even after demonetisation of the anna, its popular usage remained with char anna, ath anna and baara anna referring to one-fourth (25 paise), one-half (fifty paise) and three-fourth (75 paise) of a rupee. Prior to the metric system, an anna was equal to four pices (to make its spelling different from paise, but pronounced the same) and one pice was equal to three pais; the denominations of coins being 1 pai, one-half pice, one pice and one anna. In other words, one rupee was equal to 192 pais, recall the roots of pai, pai ka hisab.

   

At a personal level, when I started my piggy bank, I did save one paise, two paise, three paise, five paise and ten paise coins. Soon the first three denominations were phased out of circulation and the latter two jostled for space with twenty paise, twenty-five paise, and fifty paise coins. All these denomination of coins have been phased out. I failed to understand this, because the British still continue to have their coins of 1 penny, 2 pence, 5 pence, 10 pence, 20 pence, 25 pence (crown), and 50 pence (half-a-pound); and US also have their coins of 1 cent (penny), 2 cents (nickel), 5 cents (dime), 25 cents (quarter), and 50 cents (half-dollar) in circulation. 

Besides, a pro-market economy should be in favour of exact prices (or, should I say equilibrium prices) to avoid distortions. While mathematical exactness is not feasible, the availability of smaller denominations could reduce those distortions. Contrary to this market understanding, in India, many shops do not return the change for one rupee, two rupees or even five rupees even prior to their greater demand that has resulted in their short supply in recent times. 

Instead of the change, the shopkeepers will pass on some candies or such stuff that you had no intention of purchasing. If one consumes it, the sugar content and and associated additional disease burden are a matter of concern, and if one does not consume then one has the burden of generating additional garbage and also the 'notional' loss of money. Damn, if I do; damn, if I don't. Hey, but I transacted with the shopkeeper because it increased welfare for both. Or, so I thought from that Edgeworth box. 

Prior to the short supply, I contended myself that the shopkeeper did return the 10 rupee change, But, today, people are willing to pay a hundred rupees to get nine or even eight of the ten rupees, which is available in notes as also coins. This reminds me that in my piggy bank of yore, I also had an old ten rupee coin passed down from my grandfather, which one of my older cousins (not related to the grandfather) surreptitiously usurped, which, I suspect, was sold in the 'open' market at a much higher value, as it had acquired the distinction of a rare artifact.

I must be crazy discussing the phasing out of smaller denomination coins/notes when for the whole of India, nay world, the post-truth of demonetisation are the notes of higher denominations. I had already warned that mine is a one-paise view and should add to that that this is also part of my wandering thoughts. The old ten rupee coin has some lessons for those looking for some. The first is to keep 'cousins' at bay. The second is not to panic if you are not able to exchange or deposit the demonetised five-hundred rupees and the one-thousand rupees notes (the white ones) because one can store it so that in future (perhaps much before when we all are dead) there will be someone who can benefit after the notes acquire the status of an artifact (note: the more numbers you keep the lesser will be their value).

Don't ask me who gains and who looses. I hear that we will be moving to a cashless world. There will be no need of banks (no, I am not being prophetic, I am serious and am of the view that this would have happened in the near future, demonetisation may act as a catalyst in making it a wee bit faster) and there will be no need to print notes or mint coins. I will now no more get those candies from shopkeepers. The digital world will 'nudge' me to buy all that is 'attractive'. Seemingly, I will benefit from all that that is indicated in that Edgeworth box. And, yes, I seriously hope that I can fill up all those empty economic boxes. Mai karunga pai pai ka wasool.

Rapporteur's Report: Agrarian Distress, Family Farming, Land Management and Other Issues

Introduction/Apology

I begin with apologies on two counts. First, for not being able to come personally to the Conference, something that I really wanted to do, but could not for logistic reasons. Second, for the delay in preparing this rapporteur's report. Having said that, I take this opportunity to thank the office bearers for bearing with me and for the opportunity that they conferred on me. It is an honour. I enjoyed reading the papers for the theme on 'Agrarian Distress, Family Farming, Land Management and Other Issues' for the 76th annual conference of the Indian Society of Agricultural Economics being held during 21-23 November 2016 at Assam Agricultural Uiversity, Jorhat. Under this theme, there are two full papers and 17 abstracts, all selected anonymously. I came to know the identity of the author's much later and I should complement the office bearers for their professional conduct. I will not elaborate on the papers or even attempt to summarise them, as they have been presented in the conference, but will highlight certain aspects that appeal to one's academic sensibilities that are relevant to the theme.

The Theme

Distress in Indian agriculture has two analytically interrelated domains - the agrarian and the agricultural. The former is about the distress that the farmer (as also the agricultural labourer) is in. In other words, it is about the distribution of the agricultural produce and its impact on the livelihood of the people involved in or dependent on agrarian activities. The latter is the distress that the farm is in on account of a production focus (the target of 4 per cent growth not being met). To be specific, it raises questions about the inadequacies and inappropriateness of the agricultural developmental programmes.

A symptom of the agrarian distress is farmers' suicides. Equally important is the link of suicides to livelihood concerns. Of course, absence of suicides in a region does not do away with agrarian distress. Similarly, debt, or non-serviceability of debt, is a symptom of the agricultural distress (note that its absence does not imply absence of distress).

Land evokes many questions. The rights of the tenant or even sub-tenants as also the concerns of the land owner, increasing usage for urban and industrial purposes, and digitalisation of records among others. At the farm level, land management aspects require an understanding of soil health, the relevance of cropping practices that espouse sustainability (for instance multiple cropping and crop rotation).

Climate change is an important concern. It is not only about rising temperatures, but also about intense wet spell and long dry spells. Conventionally risks were identified with weather shocks (that is, abundance or shortfalls in water leading to production loss) or price shocks (low returns per unit of output). However, it was understood that these two shocks moved in opposite directions reducing the impact of their combined risk. Over the years, this has changed and both can occur concurrently. At the same time, there is an increase in marginalisation, casualisation and feminisation. Researchers working in the field as also others are conveying that the median age of the farm worker (cultivator and agricultural labourer) is increasing. Farms are increasingly being dependent on the older or female populations.

Understanding of the agrarian and the agricultural will require and enquiry that encompasses the economic, the social, the multiple facets of agricultural sciences (soil, hydrology, seeds, livestock, fisheries), the agro-ecological aspects, and the emerging technological dimensions (for instance, genetically modified seeds) among others. This requires studies that go beyond disciplinary boundaries and within disciplines they need to apply mixed methods are challenges that need to be taken head on.

The Two Full Papers

It is interesting to note that one of the full papers on 'Assessment of risk due to exposure to drought: A study of farm households of  Nagaland' by Baiarbor Nongbri, S.M. Feroze, Lala I.P. Ray and L. Devarani is a collaborative endeavour by a Masters student of Agricultural Economics with three Professors from different disciplines - Economics, Natural Resource Management and Agricultural Extension. The scholars not only go beyond disciplinary boundaries, but also go beyond state boundaries - the scholars are based in Meghalaya, the conference is in Jorhat, Assam and the paper is on Nagaland. The merging of boundaries is the call of the hour to enhance our understanding from a mixed method perspective. In examining the persistent shortfalls in rainfall, the paper captures the vulnerability of farm households to drought, which also has implications on their riskiness. It calls for research into drought tolerant varieties, water-saving technologies for agriculture as also household (including drinking water) and other requirements.  

The other full paper on 'Status and Determinants of Livestock Insurance in India: A Micro Level Evidence from Haryana and Rajasthan' by Subhash Chand, Anjani Kumar, Madhusudan Bhattarai and Sunil Saroj is also another piece of collaborative exercise. It permeates institutional boundaries with scholars from a national institute joining together with an international institute. Using primary data based on field work in two states - Haryana and Rajasthan, the scholars highlight the low penetration of insurance among livestock farmers and call for farmer-friendly insurance products.

Agrarian Distress

From the 17 abstracts, there are about six papers with the word distress in the title. One paper is on Maharashtra, one compares and contrasts the scenario of cotton farmers in Maharashtra and Telengana, one is on Odisha, two papers are on Punjab and one is on backward regions.

The paper 'From Food to Cash: Has it Caused Distress? (Case of Maharashtra)' by Sangeeta Shroff and Jayanti Kajale discuss the grim scenario in Marathwada and Vidarbha of Maharashtra on account of a shift from food to cash crops, particularly a shift from Paddy and Jowar to Soyabean and Cotton. The cash crops are particularly vulnerable to drought conditions, as the regions are largely cultivated under rainfed conditions. Besides, Marathwada and Vidarbha are also regions where more than 70 per cent of the workforce are dependent on agriculture, it makes them vulnerable.

'Are Farmers in Rainfed Region Credit Constrained? An Enquiry in the Context of Farm Distress by A. Suresh, K.V. Praveen, A. Amarender Reddy  and D.R. Singh' compare and contrast the scenario among cotton farmers in Maharashtra and Telengana and observed that almost all farmers have availed credit (98 per cent in Maharashtra and 96 per cent in Telengana). A  concern that arises is that a substantial portion credit is obtained from non-institutional sources (32 per cent in Maharashtra and 82 per cent in Telengana; the difference to some extent explained by the relatively higher penetration of cooperatives in the former) with a greater interest burden. This is particularly so for the smaller as also Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.

'Agrarian Crisis, Indebtedness and Farmers Suicide in Odisha: An Analysis' by Urmi Pattanayak and Minati Mallick juxtapose the period prior to 1990s with the period after that by pointing out that in the former period the agricultural growth took us out from a ship-to-mouth existence as agricultural production was more than the population growth, but this is not the case in the recent period. Further, with an increased reliance on input-intensive technology, also increased the reliance on credit and with non-serviceability has led to indebtedness among farmers. In Odisha, nearly half the farmers are indebted and the proportions are relatively higher among other backward classes.

The two papers on Punjab are based on primary data and point out the increasing stress in rural areas. Randeep Kaur and Kuldeep Kaur in their paper 'Punjab Agriculture-The Crisis of Indebtedness' refer to relatively greater reliance of credit from non-institutional sources by marginal and small farmers at a higher interest burden. They call for a restructuring of the credit delivery system that favour the marginal and the small farmers.

In 'Emerging Problems of Agriculture and Mounting Distress of Farmers – An Assessment', Sukhdev Singh and Maninder Kaur point out that the farmer is at a crossroads. While the aspirations of the rural/agricultural consumer wants everything on par with the urban consumer, the returns from agriculture is shrinking and productivity growth is stagnant. What is more, there is a loss of natural resources. These have been exacerbated on account of policies that facilitated rice-wheat cultivation while other crops have been declining. The shift away from paddy and other food crops in Marathwada and Vidarbha (as indicated above) is in sync with shift towards paddy in Punjab (largely being grown as a cash crop, as they do not generally consume paddy in Punjab). This cruel irony stem from earlier decisions to stem us out from the ship-to-mouth existence.

This calls for restructuring the way we do agriculture. One such approach is integrated farming that K. K. Datta, Uttam Bhattacharya and  Shiv Raj Singh address in their 'Distress of the Agricultural People in the Backward Regions in India: Exploring A Development Process through Crop- Livestock Linkages'.

Land: Tenancy and Marginalisation

The concern around tenants not getting their due and the fear of the landowner are assuming importance. The NITI Aayog has come up with a model law to address these. In this context, the paper on 'Changing Dynamics of Land Leasing and Tenancy in India: Emerging Policy Issues' by Sukhpal Singh adds value. The paper examines secondary sources of data to outline a contour of tenancy across the country and draws primary insights from field in Punjab (with a focus on reverse tenancy) and Gujarat (with lowest reported tenancy penetration).

When it comes to land, the decreasing size of holdings is a matter of concern. Sanatan Nayak's 'Marginalisation of Land Holding in India: A District Level Analysis' addresses this. While pointing to variation across states, it does highlight the relatively higher marginalisation in certain states (Bihar and Kerala) and certain communities (Scheduled Castes). What should ring the alarm bells is that more than one-third of the districts in the country are facing high ranges of marginalisation and large scale landlessness.

  

Water

There is a peasant saying stating that 'Give us water, we will give you gold'. In monsoon India where one-third of the area is drought-prone due to uneven distribution of rainfall, V.G. Pokharkar, K.R. Waikar, A.J. Amle and S.P. Kalhapure examine the 'Impact of Farm Ponds on Economy of Beneficiary Farmers in Ahmednagar District' of Maharashtra. The study observes that construction of farm ponds had an overall positive effect with greater diversification, better crop-livestock linkages, improved production, increased employment, and higher income.

The search for water has led farmers in Chikballapur district of Karnataka to dig deep tube wells. The paper 'Farmer’s Choice for Deep Tube Well Irrigation by C.K. Soujanya, S. Varadha Raj and R. Balasubramanian observes that the younger (those with relatively less experience) educated farmer is digging deeper and deeper to strike that elusive gold (nay, to address livelihood concerns) through cultivation of water-intensive crops. However, this 'tragedy of commons' like scenario would have long-term adverse implications on availability of groundwater and calls for sustainable practices.

Gender

A study on ecologically fragile distressed areas 'Microfinance in Drought Areas of Rajasthan, India: Some Issues' by Gyanendra Mani points out the constraints faced by female Self-help Groups (SHGs) after bank-linkages. In particular, apathy of banks, denial of credit, insufficient credit that would make debt non-serviceable, prevention of internal lending, and absence of coping mechanism during periods of stress among others.

'Feminization in Indian Agriculture: Extent and Dimensions' by Pragya Sharma is based on an analysis of agricultural census data for 2005-06 and 2011-12. It observes an increase in proportion of women land holders at the all India level as also in many states. The concern, however, is absence of entitlement and calls for conferring ownership rights and promotion of cooperative farming.

Resource Use

The paper on 'Crop Planning for Improving Resource Use Efficiency and Sustainability in Western Maharashtra (Plain Zone) of Maharashtra' by R.R.Nirgude, A.V.Gavali, K.G. Sonawane and D.B. Yadav observes diversity in cropping pattern, but non-profitability in certain crops takes them to apply linear programming to suggest an optimum cropping pattern. Exploring the applicability of such post-fact analysis to real-life setting with features to compensate for possible loss could be attempted.

'Resource use and Disposal Pattern of Major Cropping Sequence in Zone IV-a&b (Sub-Humid Southern Plain and Aravali Hills) of Rajasthan' by P.S.Rao and Hari Singh is based on Udaipur district where the dominant cropping system is maize-wheat. It observes that costs per hectare increases with farm sizes reflecting perhaps a greater risk-bearing capacity. Lack of irrigation facilities, unavailability of newly developed high yielding variety seeds, and imbalanced use of fertilisers are major constraints that adversely affect yield.

Comparing and contrasting organic and conventional farmers growing brinjal and chilli in Attur taluka of Salem district is the paper 'Resource Use Efficiency and Determinants of Adoption of Organic Farming in Select Crops in Tamil Nadu by M. Anjugam, P. Saranya, S.Varadha Raj, and M.Chinnadurai. The study observes that organic farming is economically viable. However, they raise the concern with regard to less than optimum use of inputs (perhaps to reduce costs). A secondary source of income and possession of livestock had positive association on adoption of organic farming. There is a need for provisioning extension services for facilitating organic farming.

Income

The concerns of income are important. 'Farm Size, Farm Income and Efficiency: The Case of Commercial Pineapple Farming in Kerala' by Jomy M. Thomas and P. Indira Devi compare small and medium farms and observe that per hectare costs are lower for small farms, but per hectare returns are higher for medium farms. Scale economies, better output through high plant density and better quality fruits have contributed to this. They point out the more than optimal use of chemical fertilisers, and build in a case for improving efficiency, particularly among the small farmers.

In the paper 'Unpredictable Income and Farmers Suicides – The case of Karnataka' by T.N. Prakash Kammaradi, H. Chandrashekar, K.J. Parameshwarappa, Harsha V. Targal, Gireesh P.S. and Mali Patil Vijay Kumar want to draw attention to stability and predictability of farmers' income.  They articulate a need to reduce the gap between what the consumer pays and what the producer receives and suggest increased production, reduction in costs, and that market transactions at least ensure the minimum support price. However, they do concede that even these may not be enough to provide a decent standard of living to majority of the farmers because of small holding size. This calls for serious introspection to provision for alternative sources of income and come up with a minimum living income for farm-dependent households. They suggest the need for a farmers' income commission in line with pay commission.   

Summary

The theme 'Agrarian Distress, Family Farming, Land Management and Other Issues' had two full papers and 17 abstracts. The takeaways are as follows. The two full papers and five of the abstracts have four or more authors and they take about collaborative endeavours that break disciplinary and institutional boundaries, which is a good thing for the discipline. In some of these collaborative endeavours as also other collaborative endeavours, one sees that younger scholars (Masters and PhD scholars) are not only part of the team but are taking a lead role, which is commendable. The issues on agrarian distress, land, water, gender, resource use and income mentioned in the abstracts as also in the two full papers raise important concerns, provide suggestions and build up cases for further studies. I apologise to the authors for any inadvertent failing on my part. I take this opportunity to once again thank the office bearers for giving me this opportunity.

  

Malkangiri Sojourn: Some Concerns on Japanese Encephalitis

On 14th of November 2016, the day celebrated as children's day in India, I had been to Malkangiri. One of the reasons was to understand the issues related to the recent child deaths (more than a hundred since September 2016), which has been largely thought to be on account of Japanese Encephalitis. During my visit, I interacted with some volunteers helping the district administration to address this and also met the District Magistrate. Some of my observation are as follows.

The causal or, rather, associational factors from a public health perspective could be discerned into three broad categories - proximate, intermediate and base. Of course, at times, it would be a thin line separating the categories, but the analytical separation could help in our understanding.

The proximate factors are as follows: Japanese Encephalitis is a mosquito-borne virus with pig as host. It has a high case-fatality rate among children.

The intermediate factors are as follows: some communities (particularly, Koya's) live in close proximity to pigs, which they breed for livelihood purposes; post-monsoon increase in breeding of mosquitoes; and unhygienic living conditions.

The base factors are as follows: absence of adequate curative care through health care systems preparedness in terms of human resources and infrastructure, lack of appropriate preventive care to reduce unavoidable deaths (including addressing malnourishment).

I must applaud the efforts of the district administration and volunteers who have been pushing themselves to work against all odds - inhospitable terrain, cash crunch, and falling temperatures. The defogging exercises to decimate mosquitoes has been largely effective. With winter setting in, the breeding of mosquitoes is also on the wane. This largely addresses the proximate factors.

They have also been able to separate the living space between pig sty's and human settlements. The efforts here would address the intermediate factors in a temporary sense. Temporary, because it involves lifestyle changes and will incur other transaction costs to the community. It will require sustained efforts from the administration to understand and address this.

The administration has responded to the health care emergency in sending more health care professionals. While appreciating this quick measure, there is a case for addressing the preparedness of the health care system in terms of permanent solution to have an impact on one of the base factors. 

Addressing preventive aspects will also be important. In this context, convergence with the Swach Bharat Mission, which is already being implemented in the district (as one saw in some of the houses of the villages one visited) will help. The recent initiatives by the state government to revive millets and facilitate integrated farming will also help in addressing these concerns - these need to be rolled out soon.

Having said that, one needs to point out that vaccination of all children from 9 months to 15 years of age (as one heard) is not an appropriate way forward. One argues against this for the following reasons. All the deaths are not on account of Japanese Encephalitis. In fact, a particular report points out that from 96 deaths that were examined only 32 were on account of Japanese Encephalitis. Majority of reported deaths are among children less than five years of age (only a handful are older than that). Again, most of the deaths (particularly, those related to Japanese Encephalitis) are largely restricted to some communities - in particular, Koya's who live in close proximity to pigs; it has not been observed among Hill Bondas who also live in close proximity to pigs. Further, mosquitoes, the carrier for Japanese Encephalitis are in any case on the wane due to defogging and because winter has set-in.

In summary, I would say that large number of child deaths on account of Japanese Encephalitis and other reasons is a matter of concern, but this does not articulate a case in favour of a Japanese Encephalitis vaccination. The response from the administration and volunteers need to be applauded. However, their efforts largely address the proximate factors, the intermediate factors in a temporary sense and a part of the base factors as an emergency measure. Greater effort and convergence is required to address the intermediate and base factors.

Five Conditions for Free Enterprises

Professor Raghuram Rajan, the Governor of Reserve Bank of India, delivered the fourth Odisha Knowledge Hub Lecture at the Secretariat Conference Hall, Bhubaneswar on 21 May 2016. His talk was titled in a generic sense India - Prospects and Challenges. The focus of the lecture was on facilitating free enterprise (particularly, the small and medium ones). Governor Rajan laid out the need for five conditions.

• Ease of entry and exit
• Access to input and output markets
• Predictability in earnings (security of property rights and transparency guarantees)
• Facilities to enhance capabilities and competencies
• Safety-nets to safeguard against vulnerability for the entrepreneur as also the worker (bankruptcy, old age, sickness, social exclusion and unemployment among others)

Rajan's concern for the small seems to find resonance in some of his earlier work including A Hundred Small Steps. I appreciate this take. Nevertheless, I have the following concerns.

First, facilitating small enterprises and allowing them to grow is necessary to induce growth. While agreeing to this requirement, I would like to point out that in a logical sense this can be a catch-22 scenario. In other words, if one extends this argument ad infinitum, which many do, then it would mean that few big players (who might have started small) end up dominating the economy. This is somewhat paradoxical because the argument has been used to create a level playing field for the small players. There is nothing wrong in becoming big and one should appreciate their achievement. But then these entities have created a space for themselves and they do not need any additional support. Besides, we should also guard against the possibility where entities become too big to fail.

Second, Governor Rajan's suggestion that norms and institutions that have become dated and out of context and impede progress need to be done away will pave the path where informal entities become formal entities. In other words, the state should create an environment where business entities have more to gain in being a formal entity than in continuing to remain informal that facilitates rent-seeking behaviour. This will be a good thing for the economy and will also add to the state's revenue. The problem with this articulation is an excessive concern on the economic entity. It misses out the fact that when it comes to employment, more than 90 per cent of the workers are informal workers and this informalisation of the workforce is increasing even in entities that are themselves formal (both in the private and public sectors including the government). The state of the informal workers and their rights to organise themselves, to do away with forced labour (not only in the form of slavery but also its manifestation in modern forms), to do away with exploitation of children (including trafficking), and to avoid discrimination (not only in wages, but also in opportunities).

Third, Professor Rajan's emphasis on enhancing capabilities and provisioning for safety-nets may give the impression that it resonates with what Professor Amartya Sen et al have been articulating. But, this is not the case. Governor Rajan's concerns is more for the enterprises. The concern for individuals emanate from the fact that they are instrumental in facilitating the enterprises. In the Amartya Sen et al human development and capability framework it is intrinsic to focus on enhancing capabilities and provision for safety nets because humans are ends in themselves. 

From a lay perspective, it would seem irrelevant whether the focus on human ends is because they are instrumental in facilitating something else; or, it is intrinsic to facilitate their beings and in doing that their instrumental advantages will automatically emerge. However, from an academic perspective, the focus on the enterprises, as in Governor Rajan's talk, may have an excessive reliance on a money-metric measure, as a proxy for the Utilitarian notion of happiness; while the focus on ends (may go beyond humans) could have multiple perspectives, a reasonably plural Rawlsian world.

A fourth concern, independent from Professor Rajan's talk, is that the Government of Odisha should look at some of the success stories from East Asian economies (particularly Taiwan and Japan; see the video and presentation slides of a talk on Rising India that refers to lessons from Taiwan). They have some lessons in facilitating free enterprises for the micro and small entities.

Despite these concerns, the suggestions by Governor Rajan are worthwhile. It would help the Government of Odisha or for that matter any other state government as also the central government to address some of the concerns raised in articulating a case for facilitating free enterprises through the above-mentioned five conditions, but where the intrinsic relevance of the people-centric aspects is acknowledged.

Gravitational Waves: A Cupid Explanation

The  LIGO chirp confirmed the coalescing of two masses a billion years ago. The scientific world is abuzz about the presence of ripples in spacetime. Thus, establishing gravitational waves, a concept that Einstein indicated more than a 100 years ago.

An artist's impression of two stars orbiting each other and progressing (from left to right) to merger with resulting gravitational waves. [Image: NASA/CXC/GSFC/T.Strohmayer]. See more here at LIGO GW Inspiral. 

From a lay perspective, this coalescing and the wave that it emanate can be explained through the way cupid strikes. Two individuals get attracted to each other then they date and decide to be partners. This coming together of two individuals will have implications on others, that is, on their extended families and friends (see Lawrence's take in Sons and Lovers). This impact on others is equivalent to the spacetime ripples through gravitational waves.

Coming together of two individuals leading to the birth of a child will also also resemble spacetime ripples. Growth of the child reflects another kind of merger (not necessarily restricted to physical matter alone) that will also have its own ripple effects. This reminds me of a paper by Kaushik Basu and James Foster that discusses the advantages to an illiterate being in close proximity to a literate and how coming together of two such individuals through marriage can increase functional advantages out of literacy.

As the child grows, she or he will move out indicating the possibility of separation from her/his family. Other distractions can also lead to a split or separation in a household. If such separation, isolates or secludes the illiterate members from the literates in the undivided family then the new set-up will reduce the functional advantages that accrued to the former.

Thus, from a lay perspective, there are some queries to the scientific community in general and those working on gravitation waves in particular. Is it appropriate to visualise that a mass or star can bifurcate into two or more parts? If such splits happen then they should also lead to gravitational waves? Are these also evident in Einstein's 100+ year old paper.

Universal Health Coverage: A Perspective

The importance of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is very high in a relatively poorer state like Odisha. In the health sector, Odisha’s performance is relatively worse-off than the all-India average. The Odisha Economic Survey 2014-15 shows that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in 2013 is 51 for Odisha and 40 for India, and Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) in 2010-12 is 235 for Odisha and 178 for India. The state of Odisha is also known to be a malaria prone belt, as around one-fourth of the total malaria affected persons of the country are found in the state.

A paper in the December 2015 issue of Lancet Global Health on age- and sex-specific mortality risk for adults (15-69 years in India shows that in 2014 in Odisha 40.5% of the adult males resided in 16 districts where the conditional probability of a man dying at these ages was more than 50% and 46.8% of the adult females resided in 18 districts where the conditional probability of a woman dying at these ages was more than 40%. These high mortality districts were common for both males and females in 13 districts of Odisha (Bargarh, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur, Debagarh, Sundargarh, Dhenkanal, Baudh, Sobarnapur, Balangir,Nuapada, Rayagada, Nabrangpur, Koraput), only for males in three districts (Mayurbhanj, Kandhamal, and Malkangiri), and only for females in five districts (Kendujhar, Anugul, Nayagarh, Gajapati and Kalahandi). In short, 21 of the state's 30 districts are high mortality risk for adults. All the tribal dominated areas are coming under these 21 districts, in which both the incidence and infirmity of poverty is very high. Except for the coastal region, all other regions are coming under it.

At a time when the world is moving towards Sustainable Development Indicators from January 2016, economists (including one of the current author’s) have come up with a declaration on universal health coverage. To paraphrase that declaration, some of the arguments contextualised for Odisha will be as follows.

We are at a critical juncture to reflect on the financial investments that will help us maximise progress by 2030. Hence, it is essential that leaders and policy makers in Odisha and India, as in the rest of the globe, prioritise a pro-poor pathway to UHC as an essential pillar of development.

UHC means ensuring that everyone can obtain essential health services at high quality without suffering financial hardship. Resource constraints imply that the state of Odisha should determine its own definition of “essential”—while recognising, in the words of former WHO Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland, that “…if services are to be provided for all, not all services can be provided. The most cost-effective services should be provided first.”

Odisha is one of the poorest states in India. Health of its residents has implication for addressing poverty and improving wellbeing. Over the past decade, health improvements (measured by the value of life-years gained (VLYs) constituted 24% of full income growth in low-income and middle-income countries. UHC is not only a matter of right, but in times of crisis (including droughts, floods and cyclones that Odisha is vulnerable to) it will provide a multitude of benefits by mitigating the aftereffects of shock. Of course, the state government’s efforts in anticipating the calamity from the cyclone Phailin in 2013 and putting in place mitigating efforts before the calamity struck needs to be applauded. UHC also has positive role during times of calm, as they foster cohesive societies and productive economies. UHC will reduce reliance on out-of-pocket expenditure and does away with financial-risk of the sick and poor. It is said that economic benefits are estimated to be more than ten times greater than costs.

One of the successes of public health has been in reducing preventable and communicable diseases. A major initiative in Odisha almost 15 years ago is that of Pancha Byadhi (malaria, leprosy, diarrhoea, acute respiratory infection, and scabies) interventions. This was in additional to other programmes on immunisation, tuberculosis, and other major communicable diseases. There is also an increasing concern on non-communicable diseases. For instance, there has been a recent initiative in Odisha to provide 22 chemotherapy drugs free to all cancer patients undergoing treatment at Acharya Harihar Regional Cancer Centre. Independent of these initiatives, a matter of concern in Odisha as also elsewhere globally is the difficulties in delivery gap, particularly in primary and secondary care in both the public and private sectors. Continued progress toward UHC will require addressing these delivery problems.

The Ebola epidemic in recent times exposes our vulnerability in resource poor settings. However, the epidemic could have been averted by building of health system at one-thirds of the cost of the response so far. Today, we are at a juncture where Odisha and every state in India as also every country have the opportunity to achieve UHC.

The Government of Odisha should realise that there is great value in financing for everyone. They should increasingly devote more and more resources to expand the package of essential services. With increasing growth, one expects that the state of Odisha independently as also through the Government of India has additional resources to invest in health services and delivery.

A panel discussion at the Nabakrushna Choudhury Centre for Development Studies (NCDS) on UHC day (12 December 2015) had an agreement on three broad things.

First, UHC in Odisha, as also India, should integrate multiple systems that should include the AYUSH (Ayurveda, Yoga, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy) systems of care. These systems should complement and supplement each other and not work in silos. The thinking that preventive care is limited to vaccination and curative care is based on a supplier-induced-demand driven by market interests should be questioned.

Second, achievement of universal health will require a multi-sectoral approach involving convergence across many government departments with emphasis on agriculture, nutrition, water, sanitation, hygiene and sports among others. Besides, there is need to combine state's interventions with community involvement. At an individual level, the importance of the DATES approach (appropriate Diet, moderate or no Alcohol, no Tobacco, proper Exercise, and Stress-free life), an acronym borrowed from an earlier work of one of the author’s (Public Health in India, India Development Report 2004-05, OUP, 2005).

Third, appropriate information and communication channels should be used to inform public about checks and balances used by the Government to ensure quality control. The state should also come up with adequate measures to address vested interests that could affect the system adversely.

The above points along with the economist’ declaration provides ground for us to urge the Government of Odisha, as also Government of India, to:

• Increase domestic funds for convergence and provide vocal political leadership to implement policy reforms toward pro-poor UHC
• Ensure that adequate funds are put towards diseases of poverty and this requires the coming together of the bio-medical dimension with the socio-economic aspects. At a global level, the donors also need to commit to this.
• Address the question of equity with respect to financing – who pays and who benefits.
• Ensure that health policy for Odisha as also India embrace UHC, as defined above, as an integrated approach for measuring progress toward health targets in the post-2015 global development framework.

The pro-poor path to UHC needs adequate commitment to resources. Despite constraints, this is achievable. We should not let go of this opportunity because UHC is right, smart and overdue.

(This has been co-authored with Biswabas Patra as a syndicated op-ed. This has been published in Health Line all Odisha 2016 (December 2015, pp.330-31). Similar write-ups translated in Odia have been published or are forthcoming in Odia dailies or fortnightly - The Samaja (21 December 2015), Odisha Bhaskar (24 December 2015), The Samaya (31 December 2015), Samadrustri (16-31 January 2016).