Indian
Agriculture: Emerging Issues and Policy Perspectives
Srijit Mishra
Introduction
The summer of 2014 got drenched with the elections
euphoria, but for Indian agriculture all eyes are set on the prospects of a
good monsoon. Is there a possibility of an El Nino? Will it lead to a drought like condition and have an adverse impact
on agricultural production? How will this impact those dependent on agriculture
for their livelihood? What about farmers' suicides? These questions remind us
of the larger agrarian crisis and its interrelated dimensions of an
agricultural developmental crisis. The former is about declining share of the overall
pie towards agricultural sector, poor returns to cultivation, and nutritional
deprivation while the latter is about inadequate and inappropriate planning
that led to a deceleration in the growth rate of production and productivity, and
an increase in risk and vulnerability. This also calls for alternative policy
thinking.
Agrarian
Crisis
The share of agriculture and allied activities in
gross domestic product at constant 1999-2000 prices decreased from 41 per cent
in 1972-73 to 14.6 per cent in 2009-10 while during the same period the share
of employment in the sector declined from 73.9 per cent to 53.2 per cent. This
means that the average returns per worker in agriculture and allied activities
as a proportion of average returns per worker in non-agricultural activities
has declined from 24.5 per cent in 1972-73 to 15.0 per cent in 2009-10.
There is an increasing marginalisation of holdings
as indicated through agricultural census. Between 1970-71 and 2010-11 the
distribution of operational holdings indicate that the share of marginal (0-1
hectares, ha) increased from 51 per cent to 67.1 per cent while that of others
declined - for small (1-2 ha) from 18.9 per cent to 17.9 per cent, for
semi-medium (2-4 ha) from 15 per cent to 10 per cent, for medium (4-10 ha) from
11.2 per cent to 4.2 per cent and for large (10+ ha) from 3.9 per cent to 0.7
per cent.
A situation assessment survey conducted for the
agricultural season of 2002-03 indicates that average monthly household income
compared to expenditure is lower for small (Rs.1,659 and Rs.2,482), medium
(Rs.2,493 and Rs.3,148) and semi-medium (Rs.3,589 and Rs.3,685) holdings while it
is higher for medium (Rs.5,681 and Rs.4,626) and larger (Rs.9,667 and Rs.6,418)
holdings. What is more, even after increasing the returns by one-third to
account for the drought, per capita per day returns to farmer households was
less than Rs.8. Assuming a 6 per cent annual average growth rate, which is much
on the higher side, the per capita per day returns in 2013-14 would double to
Rs.16. This explains the poor returns to cultivation. With nearly half the
population being still dependent on agriculture, the non-farm opportunities
remain limited.
The 2013 Global Hunger Index puts India at a rank of 63 from among 78 countries,
which is lower than some of the Sub-Saharan countries and all the other South Asian
countries. The per capita per day availability of foodgrains, as indicated in
the State of Indian Agriculture 2012-13,
has reduced from 510 grams in 1991 to 463 grams in 2011. This is also reflected
in the per capita per day calorie and protein consumption as the national
sample survey estimates of 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10 suggest. Such an
outcome is also because of a shift in the cereal production and their consumption
from millets to rice and wheat. There have been recent initiatives to increase
the millets production and their consumption.
The manifestation of the agrarian crisis has been
identified with farmers' suicides. However, it is symptomatic and its absence
does not necessarily preclude risks. A comparison of suicide mortality rates
(SMRs, suicide deaths for 100,000 persons) between farmers and non-farmers
suggests that at the all India level the difference in the rates diverged the
most in 2004 (18.8 and 13.6) and then there was a secular decline in the gap
till 2008 (16.9 and 14.7) to diverge again in 2009, a drought year, and then
started converging again from 2010 to 2012. However, a closer look at the six states
with relatively higher incidence of farmers' suicides indicate that for the
recent three years (2010 to 2012) the rates are diverging in Andhra Pradesh,
Maharashtra and Kerala and converging in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Madhya
Pradesh. The turnaround in Chhattisgarh is because it has stopped reporting
farmers' suicides and instead increased reporting of a category called
self-employed others. In addition, West Bengal did not report profession-wise suicides
data for 2012. Thus, the convergence that one observed at the all India level is
more on account of inappropriate and incomplete reporting. In any case, one has
to look up other aspects to identify possible changes.
Agricultural
Developmental Crisis
Using triennium ending data divided to three
sub-periods, 1981-82 to 1993-94, 1993-94 to 2004-05 and 2004-05 to 2010-11, an
analysis of growth rates computed through a double-kinked exponential curve
suggests that the growth of agriculture and allied activities in the first
period (3.3 per cent) was statistically significantly higher when compared with
the second period (2.7 per cent) and there has been an increase in the growth
rate in the recent period (3.0 per cent). An analysis in terms of value
addition points out that the growth rate in the first period was statistically
significantly higher than the second period for cereals (3.3 per cent and 1.0
per cent), pulses (1.5 per cent and -0.03 per cent), oilseeds (6.1 per cent and
0.5 per cent), cotton (4.1 per cent and 1.0 per cent), milk (5.0 per cent and
3.7 per cent) and meat (5.1 per cent and 2.9 per cent); the growth in the third
period was higher than the second period for all the above except for milk (3.5
per cent) and it was statistically significantly higher for pulses (2.5 per
cent), oilseeds (4.8 per cent) and cotton (13.7 per cent). The trends observed till 2010-11 have
continued till 2013-14, but for a setback in 2012-13 because of delayed onset
and deficient rainfall.
Conventionally, in monsoon India, the farmer was
exposed to either yield or price shocks that were supposed to move in opposite
directions counterbalancing each other. Today, the possibility of yield risk
increases because of unavailability of power that in turn affects water
availability at a crucial time, or because of spurious seeds or due to an
increase incidence of pest attack or because of weather changes. Further,
because of global integration, price volatility has increased and price shocks
could be because of higher subsidies in the United States or the European
Union. And, with these changes the two risks do not counterbalance each other
and the farmer can also be exposed to both the shocks in the same season.
Over the years, the farmer is increasingly relying
on the market for inputs. The link between ground realities and publicly funded
research and extension is waning and the farmer depends on the input-dealer
leading to a supplier-induced-demand. What is more, the private provisioning of
inputs without any regulation to address the sale of spurious products or other
market irregularities increases farmers' vulnerability. Further, with changes
in technology, the farmers' current knowledge become redundant and there is
deskilling.
Adequate, affordable and timely availability of
credit would be essential for any enterprise, but this has been eluding the Indian
farmer. In addition, agricultural credit is about doing the same things again
and again and not linked to horizontal or vertical expansions. Thus, any shocks
are likely to make debt non-serviceable and this would make the farmer ineligible
for subsequent loans from formal sources. This would increase the reliance on
informal sources at a greater interest burden.
Input-intensive cultivation practices bring in risks
that go beyond weather and market uncertainties. There can be inappropriate
fertiliser applications having an adverse impact on soil health resulting in
yield fatigue or pesticides having harmful impact on livestock and human health
or depletion of groundwater among others. A way out being propagated is an
expansion of the same, that is, to bring more areas under the input-intensive
approach - the look east policy being touted under a second green revolution or
an evergreen revolution. The argument put forward in favour of this or other
technology-driven approach is that there is no alternative (TINA).
Alternative
Policy Thinking
In practice, multiple alternatives exist (MAE, an acronym that sounds as mother in some vernacular languages and we refer to it as mother earth depicting the multiple alternatives that she provides) that
is context-specific. It differs across locations and evolves over time. It
questions the one-size fits all approach. Such thinking takes advantage of the
variability of the natural resource base and the diversity in the production
systems. As each crop has a different life cycle, the diversity spreads out the
vulnerability from each episode of unforeseen climatic events. In addition to
an integration of different crops, the system is also integrated with livestock
production. These could lead to low external input sustainable agriculture
(LEISA). The application or propagation of this approach is knowledge centric.
Comparing knowledge-centric MAE to technology-driven
TINA, one can state the following.
- MAE is bottom-up where different knowledge providers
will not only have to keep the local specifics in mind, but will have to work
in tandem with the users. TINA is top-down where the provider of the
technological-fix, as a solution to some presumed problem, is considered
hierarchically superior to the user of that technology.
- MAE is context-specific, requires an understanding
of the system dynamics and evolving of effective structures to manage them. TINA
is crop-specific and involves application of inputs/technology to enhance
production.
- MAE focuses on the production of a complex system
with an important emphasis on risk reduction. TINA focuses on a single crop or
livestock with an emphasis on improving productivity.
- MAE understanding of efficiency is from a system
perspective. TINA looks into efficiency in the technological and economic sense
that is normalised per unit of input.
- MAE involves marginal lands with the crop-livestock
system spread over a larger area and in that sense is extensive. TINA is mainly
in areas with better soils and with access to water (preferably through
irrigation) and input-intensive.
- MAE is about integration of mixed and multiple crops
with livestock. TINA is about specialisation that espouses mono-cropping.
- MAE production on private lands is dependent on
commons. TINA production is in owner-operated lands.
Despite these differences, MAE like TINA, cannot happen on its own. To promulgate it, one needs the support of appropriate knowledge, resources and adequate leverage with marketing opportunities and information technology. It also requires constant monitoring and evaluation.
One of the recent initiatives in-line with MAE is
the interventions in comprehensive pilots through the Revitalizing Rainfed Agriculture Network (RRA-N) comprising of a number of civil society groups spread
across the country. The comprehensive pilots are spread across different
agro-ecological conditions and focuses on integrating knowledge-centric interventions
on water, soil, seed, livestock, fisheries, credit and institutions among
others. They also collaborate with the local-level line departments and other
government functionaries, as that is very essential to scale-up within the
pilot area. The interventions that started in Kharif 2012 have attracted the
attention of the Planning Commission, the Department of Science and Technology
and the Food and Agriculture Organization. This requires greater research
engagement that will delineate the specificities in each comprehensive pilot
and identify the similarities across comprehensive pilots to facilitate their
application beyond the pilot areas.
To sum up, Indian agriculture has been going
through a crisis that is agrarian as also agricultural. A way out of this is to
explore context-specific knowledge-centric approaches. This, to borrow a term,
has the potential for an inclusive, sustainable and food-secure India.
