Sleep, Leap and Beep

My situation, now, is in a bit of quandary.
I am spending sleepless nights to put in effort,
But, effort falls short because of less sleep.

My eyes, now, devoid of sleep look dreary.
I dare not dream for fear of being in a spot,
But, spot eludes me because I cannot leap.

My prayers, now, are in search of a fairy.
I know that she can take me out of this lot,
But, lot needs to be done for me to beep.


(Inspiration from Prachya Deb Mukherjee at a facebook discussion forum is acknowledged.)

Not Toeing Your Line

As professed by yourself, you have a single point vision,
Interpeting matter not said, without rhyme or reason
To clarify, I just took example from your 'liberated' person,
And showed with fact their subjugation without treason.

Poor or rich, women and men, do not need your sympathy to shine,
Get out of your belief, and accept plural concerns without whine,
You are not the first one to castigate me for not toeing your line,
You are not the first one to castigate me for not toeing your line.

Proposed Rally Outside Indian Parliament by Right to Food Campaign

Request: Please share this even if you feel that a friend or a friend of a friend might be interested.

This is a message from the Right to Food Campaign announcing and inviting people to a rally outside parliament demanding urgent passage of the Right to Food Act and intervention in drought stricken areas.

Organised by: Right to Food Campaign, India.
Date-November 26, 2009 Time: 11.00 am- 5.00pm
Venue-Mandi House to Parliament Street, New Delhi.

Dear All,
Greetings from the Right to Food Campaign Secretariat, New Delhi. This is to invite you to a rally on the 26th of November, 2009 to put pressure on the UPA government to enact the proposed right to food act as pledged by the congress party in its manifesto and announced by the President of India on June 4 in the parliament and Prime Minister on 15 August from the red fort. All of us are also aware of the fact, that the country is faced by severe drought and spiralling food prices. The situation of hunger and malnutrition in the country is exacerbated even more than usual. In the midst of all this, the UPA government has failed to live up to its promise of enacting the right to food act within 100 days of its inception. The government is denying the need of enacting such a useful act urgently, in the guise of its involvement and efforts in tackling drought, which is a farce.

The drafting of the essentials demand and the working draft of the act has evolved as a participatory exercise, involving a range of groups and individuals with consultations held in Delhi on June 18th, July 11th, and 17th September. On the basis of this dialogue, the steering committee of the right to food campaign has put together a list of essential demands and a working draft of the proposed right to food act.

You can read all the developments till date towards the right to food act on the web link. In order to put across our demands forcefully in front of the Govt of India and our law makers, the Right to Food Campaign has planned to have a rally and demonstration of minimum 5000 people outside on 26th November, 2009 outside parliament house at Jantar Manter. The rally will begin from Mandi house. The route of the rally shall be communicated to you later in next communication. The rally will comprise of people from various states including different drought and flood affected districts, activists from various organisations, policy makers, members of parliament and political parties) Without your support of mobilising people, this rally will not be a success and therefore we appeal to you to own this rally as your own.

In the next 40 days, we request you to support this initiative by:
a) Organising signature campaign in the local areas by all groups against the demands circulated and bringing for display in the rally. The signatures can be collected in sarees or banners using the attached documents as a mobilising tool.
b) Distributing and communicating the charter of demands for the march to the local groups and mobilising as many as possible citizens to participate in the rally.
c) To encourage as many State and district Sammelans.
d) Helping to mobilise minimum of 5000 participants on 26th November Rally.
e) Helping to raise funds for the rally.

Please come with members of your organization and be a part of this rally reminding the government of its promises and immediate responsibilities to the nation. We request you to come with your own banners, placards of demands. We attach a list of documents namely
a) Charter of demands for the march to parliament in Hindi and English
b) Summary of the demands in Hindi and English in two short and longer versions, which can be circulated to the local groups. You are free to translate this in the local language of your choice for better communication.

Please drop us a line about your participation, including the numbers of people from your groups so that we can make adequate logistic arrangements. Please help us spread the word regarding this rally. You can contact below in case of queries on the rally.

Let us make this rally a success!!

With regards,
Steering Group of the Right to Food Campaign.


--
Secretariat - Right to Food Campaign
C/o PHRN
5 A, Jungi House,
Shahpur Jat, New Delhi 110049.
India
website: www.righttofoodindia.org
Email: righttofood@gmail.com
Phone - 91 -11 -2649 9563

Read all the developments towards Right to Food Act, 2009 here.

Teacher-centric Primary and Secondary Education

Today, I received an unsolicitated mail from Mr Ashish Putambekar of the Nataraja Foundation. With so many of spam mails coming I was about to delete it, but there was something in the lengthy subject line 'Project Proposal: The Indian Primary and Secondary Education Megaproject ... A Unique Teacher Centric Project' that made me open the file. A lot of work has gone into this. It is a worthy cause. I thought of putting their link in my blog, whcih will also come up as a link in my facebook. I request everyone to have a look and share this.

A couple of points that I have are as follows.
The asthetically cost-saving architechture was nostalgic for me. I studied in Trivandrum at the Centre for Development Studies, built by Laurie Baker. There is this anecdote. Prof KN Raj got some funds to begin the Centre and he was worried that all the money will go in just putting up the buildings. It is because of Laurie Baker than the cost of construction could be reduced substantially (perhaps, 25 per cent of the original estimate) and the money saved went to the library. While proposing such structures, the schools/megaprojet can claim green funds.

While travelling in remote parts of rural India, one observes that schools, health centres, banks are deserted because service providers do not reside due to absence of basic facilities (physical and human). Teacher mentions about the absence of health care, banking and other basic facilities. Health care providers point out the absence of good schools and other facilities. Bankers bemoan the absence of education, health and other facilities for their families. There is a need to keep other basic requiremnts in mind. One feels that 'The Indian Social Infrastructure Corporation' proposed should not limit itself to schools alone.

On a cautious note, if the goverment fails to take this initiative, what is the alternative. Can one not start this on a pilot basis. Or, maybe take it up in states where the governments are willing. It is worth trying to initiate the exercises in states of Bihar and Orissa. An example is the success of Society for Elimination of Rural Poverty in Andhra Pradesh. Yes, it was given full autonomy, not linked with any departments and worked as an independent body with the help of professionals.

I wish this initiative success.

Why, E is equal to MC square?

Whether one writes an epic,
Or, dons the hat of a poet.
The only measuring stick,
Will be its literary bit.
If, I were a genius,
Like Einstein.
I would show my prowess,
In a single line.
Thank my parents,
For bringing me here.
Thank my stars,
For being still there.
But, I still do not courage to dare,
Why, E is equal to MC square.

(In my Facebook, there is a note Scribd is Looking for the Next Great American Author! There was a query, "Is there a length requirement for the work?" I thought I will respond and ended up writing this sonnet.)

Calculating Gini Coefficient from Grouped Data: An Update

Eurekha!

Since yesterday, I have been trying to work out a method of calculating gini coefficient from grouped data. A quick search in the web took to some literature - the most interesting one being Approximation of Gini Index from Grouped Data by Nuria Badenes-Plá. Our suggestions would be independent of this paper. Now, let us give some prelimnaries.

We have a population divided into i=1,...,n groups, which have been ordered from the poorest to the richest. Let X-axis denote cummulative share of population, x_i, and let Y-axis denote cummulative share of wealth (or, something like that), y_i. The shares of population and wealth for each group is denoted as a_i and b_i respectively. If we compute the area below the Lorenz curve then we get:

(Σ_ia_ib_i/2+Σ_i(1-x_i)b_i)

In a conventional sense the gini coefficient is:

1-2(Σ_ia_ib_i/2+Σ_i(1-x_i)b_i)

The peoblem is that in complete inequality when n-1 groups do not have any wealth and the n^th group has all wealth then the area above the Lorenz curve is not half, it is less than that by a_n/2. To address this, we correct for the anomaly and propose a method for calculating gini coefficient:

((1/2)-(Σ_ia_ib_i/2+Σ_i(1-x_i)b_i))/((1-a_n)/2)

or

(1-2(Σ_ia_ib_i/2+Σ_i(1-x_i)b_i))/(1-a_n)

Our suggested method satisfies three properties. (1) At complete equality, if wealth share for each and every group is equal to its population share, its value is zero. (2) At complete inequality, if there is no wealth for n-1 groups and all the wealth is with the n^th group, its value is unity. (3) The calculation is population invariant - we do not have to know the size of the total population. Thus, it follows that if a population is replicated m number of times then the inequality computed will remain the same.

If instead of wealth, we are dealing with share of poor (or some other deprivation) then X-axis denotes proportion of poor and Y-axis denotes proportion of population. The above formula continues. This formula can also be used for unit level data whether weighted or unweighted, but one should be careful in calculating the shares.

Let us get back to Badenes-Plá's paper. Here also the area being lower than (1/2) at complete inequality was discussed and a suggestion proposed in its equation (12). This makes use of total aggregate wealth, W, as well as wealth for each group, w_i, ranks for each group, i, and population shares, a_i, and the formula is:

1-((1/W)(Σ(n-i)w_ia_i)/(Σ(n-i)a_i²))

We tinker with the formula by replacing wealth with wealth shares, y_i, and instead of ranks, the population shares and what we have is:

1-((1/x_n)(Σ(x_n-x_i)a_ib_i)/(Σ(x_n-x_i)a_i²))


I am not sure about Badenes-Plá's method satisfying the third property, but our tinkering of that method will satisfy the three properties that we have discussed earlier, but they are not the same as the area under the Lorenz curve normalized by the area under total possible inequality. Thus, I would strongly suggest our proposed method. To reiterate,

(1-2(Σ_ia_ib_i/2+Σ_i(1-x_i)b_i))/(1-a_n)

A final problem is that our method has been ignoring the population, N. The question that comes to mind is the richest group having all the wealth is not the same as only one single individual having all the wealth. In such case, the area above the Lorenz curve will fall sort of (1/2) by a factor of (1/N)/2, not a_n/2. This means we deal with discrete data or consider an additional group and both these can be handled with our suggested method. A note of caution for discrete data is that the third property will not hold because our correction factor will be population dependent. This is fine, because when we consider one individual as an independent group it also means that the population cannot be replicated.


Srijit Mishra Sep 25, 2009 02:18 PM
Needles to say, this also satisfies two other properties. (1) If wealth share shifts from a lower (higher) group to a higher (lower) group then inequality increases (decreases). (2) If population share shifts from a lower (higher) group to a higher (lower) group then inequality decreases (increases).

Calculating Gini Coefficient from Grouped Data

Today while trying to calculate gini coefficient from a grouped data, I was stuck as my formula was in office. A quick search in the web was not very helpful. I came across some literature on its underestimation, and hence, the need for calculating lower and upper bounds. Finally, I had to work it out myself on the back of an envelop using a Lorenz curve. I thought of sharing it with others.

We have a population divided into i=1,...,n groups, which have been ordered from the poorest to the richest. Let X-axis denote cummulative share of population, x_i, and let Y-axis denote cummulative share of wealth (or, something like that), y_i. The shares of population and wealth for each group is denoted as a_i and b_i respectively. If we compute the area below the Lorenz curve then the Gini coefficient formula is:

1-2(Σ_ia_ib_i/2+Σ_i(1-x_i)b_i)

This does reasonably well, but suffers from the lower/upper bound problems, that is, it will not give the value of zero and unity for complete equality and complete inequality respectively. However, there is a very interesting formula in Approximation of Gini Index from Grouped Data by Badenes-Plá (this paper is not to be quoted, but available on-line). I tinker with it and get a formula that corrects for the lower/upper bounds.

1-((Σ_i(1-x_i)a_ib_i)/(Σ_i(1-x_i)(a_i)²))

If instead of wealth, we are dealing with share of poor (or some other deprivation) then X-axis denotes proportion of poor and Y-axis denotes proportion of population. The above formula continues. This formula can also be used for unit level data whether weighted or unweighted, but one should be careful in calculating the shares. Happy computing.

The Non-Econometrician's Lament

This poem was brought to our notice by Professor Nachane: "While going through the references for one of my articles on Business Cycles, I came across this gem of a poem from Sir D.H.Robertson, an economist of an earlier generation (and for those of you who may not have heard of him, he was at one time a friend and rival of the great Lord Keynes)." Sir Dennis H. Robertson who also contributed a lot to Monetary theory and of course with Pigou 'Those Empty Boxes'. But, for now read on "The Non-Econometrician's Lament."

------------------------------------------
"As soon as I could safely toddle
My parents handed me a Model;
My brisk and energetic pater
Provided the accelerator.
My mother, with her kindly gumption,
The function guiding my consumption;
And every week I had from her
A lovely new parameter,
With lots of little leads and lags
In pretty parabolic bags.

With optimistic expectations
I started on my explorations,
And swore to move without a swerve
Along my sinusoidal curve.
Alas! I knew how it would end:
I've mixed the cycle with the trend,
And fear that, growing daily skinnier,
I have at length become non-linear.
I wander glumly round the house
As though I were exogenous,
And hardly capable of feeling
The difference 'tween floor and ceiling.
I scarcely now, a pallid ghost,
Can tell ex ante from ex post:
My thoughts are sadly inelastic,
My acts invariably stochastic."
------------------------------------------

Sir Dennis H. Robertson (Presented at the International Economic Association Conference on Business Cycles, Oxford, 1952 and published in the proceedings edited by Erik Lundberg, Macmillan 1955)

I would like to reiterate the last two lines.

"My thoughts are sadly inelastic,
My acts invariably stochastic."

They add icing to the cake. They are like diamond studs in the necklace made up of gems.

Poverty and Agrarian Distress in Orissa

Poverty and Agrarian Distress in Orissa is the title of my recent working paper. A summary of the paper is given below.

The relatively lower reduction of poverty in Orissa, 0.2 percentage points per annum from 48.6 per cent in 1993-94 to 46.4 per cent in 2004-05, has been a matter of concern. The current exercise attempts to analyse whether part of the explanation lies in the state of affairs in agriculture.

An analysis for 2004-05 shows that incidence of poverty is 47 per cent for rural and 44 per cent for urban Orissa. The vulnerable sub-groups are southern (73 per cent rural, 55 per cent urban) and northern (59 per cent rural, 43 per cent urban) across National Sample Survey (NSS) regions, the scheduled tribes (76 per cent rural, 65 per cent urban) and scheduled castes (50 per cent rural, 75 per cent urban) across social groups, the agricultural labourers (65 per cent) and other labourers (52 per cent) in rural areas and casual labourers (56 per cent) in urban areas across household type, and marginal and small farmers (51 per cent) across size-class of land possessed in rural areas.

What is even worrying is a much greater incidence of calorie poor (79 per cent rural and 49 per cent urban). This reflects a gap in the poverty line and the calorie that it is supposed to represent and a seeming nutritional crisis even among the groups that resorts to hard labour that includes among others marginal and small farmers and landless households – the hands that grow food.

The agrarian scenario is in dire straits. Per capita per day returns from cultivation, based on the situation assessment survey of 2002-03, is less than four rupees, a pittance. What is more, in 1990s, agricultural value addition and growth in production has been negative across all crop groups and paddy production, the main crop, shows a decline in all districts. It is this poor showing in agriculture that does partly explain the slow reductions of poverty in the 1990s in Orissa.

The predominantly tribal southern region comprising the undivided Kalahandi, Koraput and Phulbani districts brings into mind the picture of starvation deaths, growing Naxalism and communal clashes. All these are independently important concerns, but their links with widespread poverty cannot be denied.

The regularity with which the state is exposed to natural calamities also needs further probing from the climate change perspective. The call of the hour is people-centric planning that revives the livelihood bases of the farmers and agricultural labourers.

Want to read more about the paper, read on IGIDR Working Paper Series: WP-2009-006. Your comments are welcome.

An Independence Day Thought for Farmers

Today, on 15 August 2009, we commemorate 62 years independence, the 63rd independence day. The first one after the new government has taken office in May 2009 (see Congress Comeback and Expectations), the first one after the global financial crisis that started in the latter half of 2008 (see Financial Crisis, Mental Health and ..., Economics Needs a Scientific Revolution: A comment, and Surviving the Recession), the first one after the terror attack in Mumbai (see Mumbai...Lives On), the first one after Indian is exposed to the global pandemic of A (H1N1) influenza (see Swine Flu in India), and also happens to be a year when the country is facing a severe drought. The latter is particularly worrisome because the state of Indian agriculture is already under stress (see Indian Agriculture in Doldrums, Agrarian Crisis and Farmers' Suicides in India, Agrarian Crisis in India, and Hunger and Undernutrition). Some of these concerns have been raised in the Prime Minister's speech (see its Highlights) and I would leave it at that. However, with the looming drought-like scenario, I would like to raise some issues with regard to the farmers.

Debt waiver or for that matter postponing the date of payment is not the answer. Debt waiver is a book-keeping exercise that helps the banks reduce their Non-Performing Assets (NPAs); for the farmers, at the most, it reduces a mental burden and makes them eligible for fresh loans. The moot question is that there are no mechanisms to address risks in non-repayment that arise because of reasons that are beyond the control of the farmers, that is, for non-willful default. Rather, a blanket waiver clubs the wilfull default with the non-wilfull ones.

More over, debt waiver is a temporary measure. The global financial crisis saw a lot of money being pumped in by different governments in the name of stimulus, and hence, there is nothing wrong in providing stimulus for the Indian farm sectory. However, it has to go beyond the debt waiver and address more fundamental issues so that it enhances returns to cultivation and improves livelihood (including education and health requirements) of those dependent on agriculture.

Another limitation of the debt waiver exercise is that it did not address the loan burden of farmers from the informal sources. These loans are likely to have a greater interest burden. What is more, the small and marginal farmers have a greater dependence on them.

Delaying repayment of current loans does not provide much solace. It will rather add to the interest burden, as it has to be paid for a longer time period. There is no appraisal done on whether loans for two sucessive crops can be paid from returns from a single crop. A reasoanable guestimate sugests that it is not possible, that is, if there will be a good monsoon/crop the next year/season it will not be possible for the farmer to repay the loans. The repayment will still be non-wilfull, but even then he/she will still be a defaulter who would be denied access to future loans from formal sources. Thus, increasing his reliance on the informal sources. With the kind of information and communication technology that we have today, the government and banks should come up with a system to identify wilfull from non-wilfull and devise mechanisms to mitigate risks for the latter group.

A note of caution. In providing risk mitigation they should avoid the plethora of products that claim financial innovation, which in practice add rather than reduce risks from a farmers point of view.

There has been a goal of four per cent annual growth in agriculture. This, one presumes, is with regard to gross value addition. However, if one has to plan for an increase in value addition, it becomes dificult becasuse we are not aware of the future prices. Thus, in practise the planning boils down to increase in production and perhaps giving emphasis on crops with a greater value addition. The latter increases the vulnerability to price fluctuations and also compromises the farmer's ability to meet food security requirements during years of crisis. More importantly such targets forces upon the planning mechanism a top-down approach, which is totally contrary to the bottom-up approach being envisaged through the district agricultural plans.

Getting back to drought, one feels that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) can play a great role, both in building assets as also providing employment. This is the least that we can do for the risk-taking enterprising farmer. Jai Kissan! Jai Ho!

Quantitative Approaches to Public Policy

Quantitative Approaches to Public Policy - Conference in Honour of Professor T. Krishna Kumar (QAPP-TKK), which Sushanta and I have been working on for more than a year is now finally over. This took place at Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB), under the aegis of the Centre for Public Policy and as an independent tract of the Fourth Annual International Conference on Public Policy and Management.

Just before the conference we were little worried because Professor T. Krishna Kumar in whose honour this was being done was not be able to come because his wife was unwell. However, through some web link a contact was made he could participate in some of the proceeding.

One issue that came up is that there was not much time for discussion. True, but as the purpose was to honour Professor T. Krishna Kumar and we decided in favour of bringing together more scholars as against fewer papers with more time for discussions. In any case, we have already requested participants to send in their comments to the authors. The authors can also forward the link of their papers to others requesting comments. I hope that this helps the authors in revising the papers. We also have plans of peer reviewing selected papers for possible publications.

At the end of the day, the conference went off well. The taste of the pudding was yummy!

Swine Flu in India

The first swine flu death in India of Rida Shaikh a 14 year old school going girl in Pune has initiated a public health debate. As of 31 July 2009, World Health Organization in its 60th update indicates that there have been 1,62,380 cases and 1,154 deaths. The news reports of 5th August 2009 indicate that in India there have been 574 cases of which 470 have been discharged and there was one death. There have been 154 cases in Maharashtra of which 104 are from Pune and 22 from Mumbai/Thane.

In this pandemic, there is a demand that private hospitals be allowed to treat. This is a public health problem and whether you like it or not, its treatment is available at designated public facilities. The moot question is the quality of care (state of hygeine) is not good in these facilities. This leads to another pertinent question. Why has this happened? If you create a system where people who can act as a pressure group to ensure quality have nothing to do with this system then it would degenerate. Let us not wait for such epidemics to set our house in order. We should have a stronger public health system.

Another point that emerges is are the care providers of Rida Shaikh, who was first taken to a private clinic and then to the public facility where again there was delay because the first blood test report was done at a private hospital. One may not hold the providers neglecting the child's care, but it does call for some systemic evaluation and improvement.

This incident, as in all health related ailments, reiterates two things. We do not know when we will fall sick. If sick, we do not know when we can get better. It is for this that unregulated private care givers is definitely not the answer.

A state of epidemic has been declared in Pune and Satara districts of Maharashtra. As per this, the state can enforce treatment on people unwilling. It can also seas premises like schools and other public places to prevent the spread of diseases.

The World Health Oragnization has a Swinflu portal Pandemic (HINI) 2009 that is updated regularly. There are guidelines for individuals, communities, and national authorities. The most important being the frequently asked questions on What can I do?

To protech yourself:


• avoid touching your mouth and nose;
• clean hands thoroughly with soap and water, or cleanse them with an alcohol-based hand rub on a regular basis (especially if touching the mouth and nose, or surfaces that are potentially contaminated);
• avoid close contact with people who might be ill;
• reduce the time spent in crowded settings if possible;
• improve airflow in your living space by opening windows;
• practise good health habits including adequate sleep, eating nutritious food, and keeping physically active.

It is difficult to distinguish between a common seasonal flu and swine flu. The typical symptoms are fever, cough, headache, body aches, sore throat and runny nose. In India, there are specified public hospitals where this can be treated. The only place in Mumbai (which is 160 kilometers from the epidemic declared area) is Kasturba Hospital on Arthur Road - Phone: 230 83901/92458/00889). This can be treated, but it should be done under medical advise. DO NOT PANIC.

If you think that you have the illness then:

• stay at home and keep away from work, school or crowds;
• rest and take plenty of fluids;
• cover your nose and mouth when coughing and sneezing and, if using tissues, make sure you dispose of them carefully. Clean your hands immediately after with soap and water or cleanse them with an alcohol-based hand rub;
• if you do not have a tissue close by when you cough or sneeze, cover your mouth as much as possible with the crook of your elbow;
• use a mask to help you contain the spread of droplets when you are around others, but be sure to do so correctly;
• inform family and friends about your illness and try to avoid contact with other people;
• if possible, contact a health professional before traveling to a health facility to discuss whether a medical examination is necessary.

Meta-analysis: A research tool

In medical sciences (particularly, epidemiological and evidence-based medicine), meta-analysis is an accepted method. It is said that famous statisticians like Karl Pearson (to overcome power of reduced statistical power in small sample studies, 1904), RA Fisher (idea of cumulating probability values because the insingnificant results of a number of indipendent studies may give a lower picture from probabilty then one would obtain by chance, 1944), WG Cochran (in his discussion on averaging of means across independent studies laid down the statistical foundation through inverse variance weighting and homogenity testing) among others contributed towards this (see, Meta-analysis in Wikipedia and Practical Meta-Analysis by David B Wilson).

It was Gene V. Glass who first made use of the term in its statistical sense in a seminal paer Primary, secondary, and meta-analysis of research, Educational Researcher, 5 (10), 3-8, 1976, JSTOR link. To quote from this paper:

"Primary analysis is the original analysis of data in a research study. It is what one typically imagines as the application of statistical methods."

"Secondary analysis is the re-analysis of data for the purpose of answering the original research question with better statistical techniques, or answering new questions with old data."

"Meta-analysis refers to ... the statistical analysis of a large collection of analysis results from individual studies for the purpose of integrating the findings. It connotes a rigorous alternative to the casual, narrative discussions of research studies which typify our attempts to make sense of the rapidly expanding research literature."

I have been aware of this technique because of my research interests in the public health domain. But, what caught my attention very recently the paper by Derek D. Headey and Andrew Hodge, 'The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature' Population and Development Review, 35 (2), 221-248, 2009. The study explores how differences in the method could account for differences in results.

The meta-regression technique is as follows. In the first step, one has to rely on the independent original studies on a particular theme. In these studies the regressions will have a dependent variable (like economic growth, Yi) and an independent variable (like population growth, Xi) and there may be a set of control variables (Z), which are likely to be different for different sutdies.

(1) Yi=a0+a1Xi+ajZj+ei (j>1)

To know the impact of population growth on economic growth, the relevant coefficient is a1. Its statistical significance depending on its standard error, s1; that is, if the t-stat=(a1/s1)>|2|.

In the second step, the main task for the meta-regression, one the t-stat of the k studies (t1k) on the (el, l) number of methodological dummies.

(2) tk=b0+blDl+uk

The methodological dummies could refer to alternative measures of economic growth (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, Gross National Product (GNP) per capita, GDP per worker), alternative measures of population growth (total population, young population, working population) or because of alternative techniques used (control set includes health indicator, sample is developing land-poor countries, sample is developing countries, sample is for a prticular time period, the econometric method uses weighted least squares and so on and so forth). Of course, the more number of dumies one can use would depend upon the more number of studies that already exist.

Some of the problems with meta-analysis identified in literature are the following.
The studies that one is likely to have access (read published) are the ones that would have reported significant results. In other words, unpublished studies that showed negative or null findings are difficult to find.

Another problem that comes from critiques of the approach is th 'Apples versus Oranges'. Is it proper to compare the different studies together. But, the independent studies are also comparing something. It is true that one should be careful and know what one is comparing than doing away with comparision altogether.

There is also the 'Flat Earth' criticism. That an analysis of averages may not do justice. Yes, and one should use meta-analysis judiciously to explore that also (for instance, in the use of methodological dummies). There are many others that one would come across, as one reads on more.

A good read is Meta-analysis at 25 by none other than Gene V Glass. Researchers in other disciplines should explore this method. Go head on!

Budget 2009: After Masima, Jethu's Bari

In the railway budget of 2009, Masima had her say. In Budget 2009, Jethu (Shri Pranab Mukherjee) had his say (If I was twenty years younger I would have addressed him as Dadu) while sipping water in between. The first message that has to be read between the lines is that the Indian National Congress (INC) as also Trinamool Congress are aiming at the state elections of West Bengal in 2011. There is also a medium term target of Uttar Pradesh in 2012. The Left Front, Bahujan Samaj and Samajbadi better watch out.

The budget is also a way of saying thank you to all those who voted the United Progressive Alliannce back to power. The increased expenditure under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) is on expected lines. The National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM) that would restructure the existing Swarnajayati Gram Swarojgar Yojana (SGSY) and integrating with Self-help groups and other initiative are welfare programmes that show promise.

What worries most is the increasing expenditure without commensurat receipts leading to an increase in fiscal deficit. Jethu is not too much bothered about this becaue of the global financial crisis. He will wait for the fruit to ripe.

Politically, the immediate concern would be Maharashtra elections later in the year. With delayed monsoons, will the Vidarbha task force, debt waiver and urban storm water drains help. Only time will tell.

Mamtadi (Masima) Special, Railway Budget 2009

On 3rd July 2009, Kumari Mamata Banerjee (popularly known as Mamatadi (Didi), left to myself I would prefer to call her Masima-Ma jaisi or like mother) presented the first railway budget of the recently constituted government that gave United Progressive Alliance (UPA) its second term with Shri Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister. In its first term Shri Lalu Prasad Yadav was the railway minister and he is credited in turning around the Indian Railways from a loss making entity to a profit making one which continued even during the global downturn; currently, Shri Yadav is not a part of the UPA government. Given the backdrop, there are a lot of eyes on Masima. She is not new to this job. This is her third railway budget, the earlier two being presented when she was a minister in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government with Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister. This is the first time that a female railway minster presented a budget before a female Lok Sabha speaker and that too when the country has its first female President.

Keeping in line with the ‘inclusive growth’ agenda of the government as envisaged under the 11th five year plan, Masima wanted to identify with the common man. She came to the parliament in her own vehicle (not the official one allotted to her) braving the traffic snarls and carried the budget paper in a jhola/cloth bag (not a leather briefcase). More importantly, she wanted to emphasize on social viability over economic unviability. Thus, the inclusiveness agenda has to focus on backward areas and underprivileged people. The budget document is a good read. For some of the important highlights, see the Press Information Bureau, PIB, version or the Ministry of Railways version. My takes on some fo these are as follows.

Special trains for perishable farm produce. This should be linked with better storage as also linking transport networks from the farm gate to railway centres. It has the potential of giving farmers a better price.

Provide facilities for transportation of rural craft. The implicit thought that there is more in rural areas than just farm produce. In fact, with low returns from farm produce, it is the rural non-farm avenues that need to be identified and propagated by the larger economy (wait for the main budget).

Izzat scheme: Monthly ticket of Rs.25/- for unorganized sector/poor with income of less than Rs.1500. This will help the vendors travelling by train.

Railway tickets are to be made available through post offices and mobile vans. People without access to internet or credit card are likely to benefit from this. This calls for some integration of the optic fibre cable network of railways. The railway budget refers to setting up an expert committee headed by Shri Sam Pitroda to look into these.

Concession for accredited press persons increased to 50 per cent. They can use this to travel to hinterland areas to capture more and more people-centric stories.

There was increasing talk of the Tatkal Schme charging more money. The charges have been reduced (from Rs.150/- to Rs.100/- per ticket) as also the number of days (from five to two) before which one could avail this facility.

Some other initiatives are ladies special trains in metros (Chennai, Delhi and Kolkata; it exists in Mumbai) during office hours, Yuva trains for youth from hinterland to metros. Duronto or non-stop point-to-point long distance trains. More importantly, passenger fares and freight tariffs have not been increased.

Procedural Norms for Financial Prudence

There are certain procedural norms laid down for financial prudence. In India, a common practice is to seek quotations from at least three different firms. The purpose is to ensure that while buying with public money one ought to survey the market and go for the lowest. One has to be careful with public money.

In practice, three quotations are a formality. Some collect it from three firms whereas some others ask one firm to provide quotation from three different firms. There are many instances when the prices quoted in all the three would be much more than the normal price prevailing in the market (not necessarily the maximum retail price).

If you bargained hard and purchased at a price which is much lower than the prevailing market price but got only one quotation then you are in for trouble. On the contrary, if you purchased at a price which is much higher than the prevailing market price but this is the lowest from three quotations then you have followed the procedural norms for financial prudence.

In one occasion while coordinating a field survey for which there was provision to hire locally available vehicles. My employer suggested that I survey the market and bargain for a reasonable price but should not forget to get three quotations. The latter is required because the auditor who will come sometime in the future (it could be in the next one to five years or even more) will have no idea of the prevailing market or even if aware there are no documents to support that contention and if the person goes by personal knowledge of the market then it will be like being party to not following procedural norms.

The other problem is that if there is a prevailing market rate then how can one get three quotations in which one is the lowest. It is only possible if one asks two providers to give a slightly higher quotation.

A major problem is to ensure quality. If one is going for the lowest price then the quality of the final product will also be poor. One way out for this is to specify the quotation/bid to two parts. One technical and another financial. Ensure quality at the technical bid stage. One should have a minimum of two who qualify for the financial bid and then choose the one with the lowest price. This sounds good, but there is still a possibility that the one who looses out on the financial bid will have much lower quality.

The suggestion for this is to be very strict at the technical bid. If you fail to get two then call the bid again and if you still did not get two then call for a third time and this time you can cross the technical bid stage even if only one qualifies. But, then precious time is lost in the process. It leaves one wondering, whether these procedural norms are for financial prudence or otherwise...

Masters in Development Studies

The Central University of Bihar (CUB), which has been recently set up along with eleven other central universities by an act of parliament, The Central Universities Bill, 2009. Professor Janak Pandey, an eminent Psychologist, has been appointed Vice Chancellor. He has take the responsibility head on and set in motion to start a two-year course on Masters in Development Studies from 2009-10. Such programmes are available in the European Universities (ISS, LSE, Machester and Sussex among others). The programme offered by CUB shows promise and young minds interested in development studies should apply for the same. For details, see their brochure. A summarized form is as folows.

Applications are invited to Masters in Development Studies by CUB. The minimum eligibility shall be of 55% (50% for SC/ST candidates) of marks in the bachelor degree examination. There will be a written test on August 1, 2009 in five centres spread across the country (Kolkata, Mumbai, Mysore, New Delhi and Patna). Selected candidates wil be called for Group Discussion and Interview to take place during August 24-25, 2009. Application fee for all candidates is Rs.500/- (only through crossed Demand Drafts to be drawn in favour of 'Central University of Bihar' payable at Patna). Submission Of completed applications begins from July 06, 2009 and should reach (Central University of Bihar Counter (CMIP campus), Phaneeswarnath Renu Hindi Bhawan, Chajjubagh, Patna -800001) before July 24, 2009.

All the best to all those who take this plunge.

Hyderabad, Bhubaneswar and Back

Well, we were away for a vacations, or, that is what we thought. One week at Hyderabad, one week at Bhubaneswar and one week at Mumbai itself.

We reached Hyderabad on the 16th in the afternoon, the day when the reseults for the general elections were declarred. We made the mistake of coming by local train from Secundrabad and had to wait in the station for more than an hour. Not a good decision. We should have taken a taxi.

The election result was sort of status quo at the Centre as well as in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa though with changed equations in alliances. The Central government did not have Lalu, their partner for five years, or Mulayam, who bailed them out with the Nuclear fiasco. It seems that the Yadavs (including the one from Janata Dal (United)) are together when it comes to opposing women representation. Unfortunately, I do not have a good example from the most illustrious Yadava we know - Lord Krishna. Those days women were not rulers. But, Rukmini, still ruled. She was the embodiment of wealth, Godess Lakshmi incarnate.

On way to Bhubaneswar we had some lively discussions with fellow travellers. A couple of them confirmed that the debt waiver is an election gimmik. A co-passenger, who is a small manufacturer, benefited. He had taken some loan showing some agricultural land in his native villagem, which was waived. Despite this, he himself voted for the anti-cooruption crusader Jaiprakash Narayan, who won from Kukatpally in Hyderabad. Cheeranjivi's Praja Rajyam's debacle was not unexpected because of high-handedness in giving tickets by taking money (three crore rupees). In fact, one candidates wife committed suicide as he had mortgaged all land to get this money. Further, Cheeranjivi's personal record in contributing to social welfare in his native village was not good either. Long back he had sold off his land after he requested by people from that this could be used for a school/community centre, he had shown disrespect to one of his teachers and so on and so forth.

The economic downturn had negative impact on our co-traveller's business initially because stocks which were made with inputs purchased at higher prices had to be sold at lower prices. Ater the stocks were cleared in one-two months things are fine because inputs are also cheaper. This gentermal entrepreneur has an interesting story because he was not a sucessful student. After completing schooling he left village for higher studies (Engineering) but the world of English teaching and away from home was totally new and he could not cope up. He returned back and dabbled with odd jobs, took to real estate, gave it up to take up shrimp farming in native village, but heavy losses forced him back to Hyderabad looking for odd jobs and now he is producing aluminium products in two/three manufacturing centres and has plans of further expansion.

On Satyam people think that there is more than what is obvious. Showing profits when company is not doing is a common practise so that one gets funds, but this happening for a continuing period of time when the IT sector was doing well means something is fishy. The Maytas group dabbling with land and the fall in real estate must be a concern. Getting arrested could be a ploy to avoid going to the US where Mr Raju faces other serious charges.

Next day (23rd May) we passed through Chilika. Nerika enjoyed taking a number of snaps; see Chilika Tire. I took Solitude, the cowherd with his catle taking rest from the May heat under the shade of a tree.

On 24th, we went to my school, Stewart School, Unit VIII, Bhubaneswar. Very close to where we stay now. As children when we were stydying there our house at BJB flat was quite far (eight-ten kilometres; not much in Mumbai standards). It was nostalgic, but the camera's memory stopped me from taking a number of pictures.

Nandini had warned that Nerika is going to ask some serious questions; be prepared to answer. Yes, she did. Why is it that Jejebapa and Jejema are not staying in the same house. We were putting up at the Nuapalli house where Nana (Nerika's Jejebapa) was. Bou (Nerika's Jejema) visits this place ocassionally, but stays at the fourth-floor LIC flat, which I happend-to-own. Why is she staying there alone? Is that an old-age home? To add to it she had a plastered leg. I do not know what all questions went through Nerika's mind, but I am not sure whether I have convincing answers for them.

Nerika, however, went with me all the times that we went there and also enjoyed the toys she got from her. Once when Bou came to Nuapalli she also played cards, which Nerika has picked up at Hyderabad while playing with her Tatta-Ammu (the other grand parents). She also played once or twice with her Jejebapa, a serious Bridge player who was not enjoying it as much. The other more serious question she had was about maid servants (see Another Lesson at Bringing Up Momma by Nandini).

On our last day in Bhubaneswar, we taxed Neri taking her all around under the sweltering May heat. The result was that she suffered from indigestion which had an adverse impact on her health for the next week back in Mumbai. It did not do much good because one of my frinds with his family came with us. The extended vaccation fro Nerika as also her birthday celebrations were subdued.

Staying with my friends family was different. At Bhubaneswar we visited them but we never stayed together. This time when we stayed it was different from our days in hostel 20 years ago. Nerika was not well. Nandini was taxed and to add to it I was busy trying to meet some deadlines in office. My friend and his family were also busy. They had come with the expectation of travelling and going out. They did, but we were not part of it. It is time for all of us to get back...

Congress Comeback and Expectations

The election news in India is that the Congress will come back to power with some outside support. It looks like that this will also be a stable government.

With the monsoon going to set in early, the party has to give greater priority to Agriculture from the beginning. This is where more than half of the people and nearly three-fourths of rural people still depend upon there livelihood. If this is going to be a second term for Dr Manmohan Singh and he wants Mr Rahul Gandhi to be in the cabinet and I think that the latter should take up agriculture. In this sector, the opposition also needs to be involved in a major way. If planned well this has the capacity to address the larger financial crisis. The blueprint of the District Agricultural Plan has a lot of potential but then its implementation at the ground level is tardy.

Two positive and people friendly developments of the last government were the Right to Information (RTI) and the Nationation Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA). This has definited translated into votes. These have to be carried forward with more vigour, make NREGA more inclusive (as already indicated by the Right to Food group) and also bring in a comprehensive Swarnajayanti Gram Swarojgar Yojana (SGSY) so that this self-employment programme complements the NREGAs wage employment.

Before I forget, they should initiate immediate steps to free Dr. Binayak Sen. He has been in jail for more than two years now. Then only, Jai Ho!

India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-V 2009

The last and final phase of elections will end on 13 May 2009. This will take place in 86 constituencies spread across nine states. They are Chandigarh (1), Haryana (4), Puducherry (1), Tamil Nadu (39), Uttarakhand (5), Punjab (9), West Bengal (11), Jammu & Kashmir (2), and Uttar Pradesh (14). As the campaigning ends one feels that the desperation and fractions in the Indian National Congress (INC) and its coalition of the United Progressive Alliance is more visible whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its coalition of the National Democratic Alliance seems to be comfortable, though they may not get to the magic figure. Nevertheless, one intuitively feels that there are a number of surprises that one would expect. Post-poll arithmetic would be an interesting exercise.

India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-IV 2009

The fourth phase of elections is on 7 May 2009. There are 86 constituencies spread across eight state going into the polls. They are Bihar (3), Haryana (10), Jammu & Kashmir (1), Punjab (4), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (18), West Bengal (17) and the New Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi (8).

In two assembly segments of Nalanda and two of Pataliputra (both in Bihar) the timing for voting is till 3.00 pm only. The battle royal is in NCT Delhi. The patience seems to be running out. People now are eager for these last to phases to get over and the counting to start on 16 May. The indication is that neither the Congress nor the BJP are likely to emerge as strong contenders independently.

Women Power

Today morning I finished reading My God is a Woman by Noor Zaheer. This is a must read for all those concerned about gender divide in general and that of the Muslim women in particular. After keeping the book aside, as I was still wondering in my thoughts and glancing through the morning newspaper my eyes fell on the story the first three rankers in the civil services examinations are women, 10 among the top 25 are women including Muslims, and overall there are 166 women from 801 candidates that made it. Hats off to all the women and men who made it. Women being on the top three is real good news and we hope that this trend continues and the number of women that make this also increases from the current one-fifth.

Lest we loose sight, the message from Noor Zaheer is that laws need to be constantly formed because people are constantly on the lookout to take advantage of the loopholes. Asking for rights, will always question some status quo and this would be opposed. But this journey is not to put the other side down but to tell them that we are all equal partners. It is a call for equality that all reasonable beings should support. Let us all celebrate this women power.

India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-III 2009

Tomorrow (30 April 2009) is the third phase of elections. It is being conducted in 107 constituencies spread across 11 states. They are Bihar (11), Gujarat (26), Jammu & Kashmir (1), Karnataka (11), Madhya Pradesh (16), Maharashtra (10), Sikkim (1), Uttar Pradesh (15), West Bengal (14), Dadra & Naagar Haveli (1), and Daman & Diu (1) (see Map).

This phase is special as being in Mumbai, I would also be voting tomorrow. The elections for the ten seats in Maharashtra are those in Mumbai (6) and Thane (4). The Chief Electoral Officer Mumbai has put up helplines for people to find out their booths. The helpline numbers are 2279 3925 and 3219 7767. One can also SMS and get information, the mobile numbers are: 9320 899623, 9320 928504, 9320 948340, 9322 193799, and 9324 376961.

My constituency is Mumbai North West and when I called up I was successful in getting the details of my polling booth (Gurukul Vidyalaya, Ground Floor, Room No.1, General AK Vaidya Marg, Malad (E)). This is close to my place of residence at IGIDR.

I will elaborate a little more about my constituency. There are 21 candidates in the fray. They are: Athar Siddiqui (Bahujan Samaj Party, BSP), Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant (Indian National Congress, INC), Gajanan Kirtikar (Shiv Sena, SHS, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP), Aggarwal Rishi Dharampal (Jago Party (JGP), a new party with base in Rajasthan that is against corruption), Abu Asim Azmi (Samajwadi Party, SP), Jadhav Bhikaji Gangaram (Kranti Kari Jai Hind Sena), Thakare Shalini Jitendra (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), a party formed after splintering from Shiv Sena), Tawade Dilip Narayan (All India Forward Bloc), Pawar Subhash Pandurang (Prabuddha Republican Party), Vaijanath Sangram Gaikwad (Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangha) and eleven independents - Anita Ramkrushan Rupawate, Kamble Satish Kisan, Dayanand Nivruti Kamble, Dhotre Maruti Yamnappa, Ninad Manjardekar, Pramod Sitaram Kasurde, Bhatia Ripudaman Singh (a marine engineer), Mohammed Rafiq Abdul Razak Shaikh, Mahadev Limbaji Galphade, Dr. Vijay Bhave (a child specialist), and Santosh Pandurang Chaike.

As a layman one began by thinking that Ad Gurdas Kamat (INC) and Gajanan Kirtikar (SHS) are strong contenders. The former's traditional vote bank may be dented by Athar Siddiqui (BSP)and Abu Azmi (SP) whereas Shalini Thakare (MNS) may dent that of Kirtikar. In fact, an on line poll in Mumbai Mirror for Mumbai Nort West gives more than half the votes to Athar Siddiqui and 15 per cent to Shalini Thakare. For the other five Mumbai constituencies the Mumbai Mirror results are as follows. Dr. Mona Shah (Professional Party of India) and the Banker Meera Sanyal (Indepent) doing well in Mumbai South. Sanjay Nirupam (INC), Shirish Parkar (MNS) and Ram Naik (BJP) are fighting it out in Mumbai North. Priya Dutt Roncon (INC) is ahead of Shilpa Sarpotdar (MNS) who seems to be denting BJP's Ram Jathmalani in Mubai North Central. Shailen Ghosh (Independent) and Shweta Parlekar (MNS) seem to be doing better than Eknath Gaikwad (INC) and Suresh Gambhir (SHS). In Mumbai North East, Shishir Shinde (MNS) seems to be better poised than that of Kirit Somaiya of BJP and Sanjay Dina Patil of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

The Times of India's Lead India series indicates that Mumbai North West looks for Mr Clean while highlighting the candidatures of Kamat, Kirtikar, Azmi and Thakare. On line voting of issues by Mumbai Votes identified corruption, terrorism, public transport, disaster management and environmental protection. Based on the Manifesto and promises of the contenders, Rishi Aggarwal of JGP seems to be the real Mr Clean.

In Mumbai North West, five candidates have provided their profile in websites and four of them have a group in facebook in their support. They are Rishi Aggarwal (FB group), Abu Azmi (FB group), Shalini Thakare (FB group), Ripudaman Bhatia (FB group), and Dr Vijay Bhave.

A broad reading at this stage is that MNS is going to give a run to BJP-Shiv Sena combine in the city. If only they would not have cultivated an anti-North Indian image they would have been a force to reckon with. There is a mood for change and there are going to be some major surprises. The dampener is that with a holiday being declared tomorrow, followed by labour day May 1st and the weekend many people might have taken a break and gone out of the city. Nevertheless, my word is that INC-NCP and BJP-SHS better watch out!

Hunger and Undernutrition

The July 2008, id21 insights, issue # 73 is about Improving the nutritional status of women and children. The editorial begins by reminding us that a high global food prices would make large proportions vulnerable in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Even in the absence of rising food prices there was an increase in child undernutrition indicating that income growth is not the answer for all ills.

Despite the understanding that reducing child undernutrition (particularly that of the adolescent girl) is paramount in addressing a number of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), one wonders Why is undernutrition not a higher priority for donors? Andy Sumner, Johanna Lindstrom and Lawrence Haddad point out that one-third of the children in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are undernourished. What is more, the proportions are increasing in the former. In prioritizing undernutrition they suggest the following. The community of research institutes in nutrition, think-tanks and international Non-Governmental Organizations should put up a strong case. There isa a need to link undernutrition to a failure of governance. The proportion of children underweight could be a more potent measure than poverty.

Nicholas Alipui suggests that Strong public-private sector partnerships can help to reduce undernutrition. There is a clear need for well-focused and strategic partnership between the private and public players. There is scope with regard to Ready-To-Use Therapeutic Foods (RUTFs) for six plus months children suffering Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). However, care should be taken to note that this should be not be considered as a substitute for breast feeding, as is being marketed by some private players. Two other related papers in this are that of Community-Based Management of Severe Acute Malnutrition, A Joint Statement by the World Health Organization, the World Food Programme, the United Nations System Standing Committee on Nutrition and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), 2007, and Infant and Young Child Feeding and Care by the UNICEF.

The success of salt iodisation has helped reduce iodine deficiency disorder like cretinism, mental retardation and premature birth in 70 per cent of the population as against 20 per cent in the early 1990s. Other related documents in this are Micronutrients - Iodine, Iron and Vitamin A and a 2004 Copenhagen Consensus Challenge Paper Hunger and Malnutrition by Jere R. Behrman, Harold Alderman and John Hoddinott.

In The price of hunger: The relationship between poverty and food intake David Mepham indicates that undernutrition is a symptom and cause of poverty. Halving people with less than one dollar a day would go a long way but it should also be complemented with halving the number of people suffering from inadequate food consumption. Income poverty and inadequate consumption are related and particularly so in large parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where average per capita per day returns turn out to be less than the cost of a healthy diet. Poor diet can impair growth and development affecting achievements in schooling and productivity in adulthood and thereby extending deprivation to the next generation. Thus, undernutrition and poverty need to be tackled together and also complemented with nutrition education.

"Malnutrition concerns not enough food, too much food, the wrong types of food, and the body's response to a wide range of infections that result in malabsorption of nutrients, or the inability to use nutrients properly to maintain health. Clinically, malnutrition is characterised by inadequate or excess intake of protein, energy, and micronutrients such as vitamins, and the frequent infections and disorders that result" (World Health Organization).

In Africa, 30 per cent of children are malnourished because of low birth weight and growth faltering in the post-natal period. John Mason and David Sanders indicate that The persistence of child malnutrition in Africa worsens during droughts, conflicts, economics crisis and HIV epidemic. Accelerating globalization is affecting poor farmers. Removal of tariffs income support to farmers in developing countries would increase export opportunities for poorer farmers. Improvements in child nutrition would augur well for reducing child mortality, morbidity and enhancing intellectual development. These are further elaborated in the Impact of Drought and HIV on Child Nutrition in Eastern and Southern Africa and Community Health and Nutrition Programs in Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries 2nd Edition, edited by Dean T. Jamieson et al, 2006.

The poor Nutrition for mothers and children by Isatou Jallow is in contravention with Article 25.2 of the Universal Declaration of Human Right by which motherhood and childhood are entitled to special care and assistances. Non-exclusive breastfeeding in the first six months is an important risk factor for child mortality and disease burden. Maternal short stature and iron-deficiency anaemia that account for one-fifth of maternal mortality can be attributed to poor nutrition. The World Food Programme can address these concerns while also conveying to communities that (i) child care is not the sole responsibility of women, (ii) improving mother and child nutrition will have positive impacts on the whole society and (iii) there is a need to link mother-child nutrition programme with school feeding and other such programmes to advocate the relevance of nutrition thought an individual's lifecycle. A suggested reading is Halving Hunger: It Can Be Done.


Barbara Macdonald raises the question Why have donors committed so few direct investments to eliminate child undernutrition? Despite some encouraging new initiatives, the constraints identified are (i) the lack of effective coordination amongst the key international and state organisations responsible for reducing undernutrition, (ii) gaps in evidence about the impacts of nutrition interventions, including rigorous evaluation of current programmes, and (iii) the daunting challenge of insufficient trained people to design, implement and evaluate programmes. It also brings into focus two recent publications. (1) 'Maternal and Child Undernutrition Series', The Lancet 371, edited by R. Horton, January 2008, (link for registered users). (2) Vitamin and Mineral Deficiencies Technical Situation Analysis: a Report for the Ten Year Strategy for the Reduction of Vitamin and Mineral Deficiencies', Food and Nutrition Bulletin, 28(1) supplement 2, edited by T. Sanghvi, M. van Ameringen, J. Baker and J. Fiedler, 2007, (link for registered users).

The most important question is What can be done to accelerate progress against undernutrition? Ricardo Uauy drawing from his coauthored paper Effective International Action Against Undernutrition: Why has it Proven so Difficult and What can be Done to Accelerate Progress? in The Lancet suggests four areas. (1) Stewardship and guidance: International organisations must work together to create evidence-based simple, consistent and prioritised guidance. (2) Aid and investment: Increase aid for direct nutrition intervention and better target the neediest group. A case of comparison is that though Disability Adjusted Life Years from undernourishment would be similar to that from Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), aid to latter is almost 20 times greater. (3) Direct service provision: During disasters and conflicts impact of nutritional intervention programmes need to be documented and evaluated for their efficacy (including cost-effectiveness). These will create operational standards as also better coordination mechanisms to improve emergency response. (4) Strengthening resources: To address the shortage of skilled personnel funding need to re-orient training and research to more programme-relevant topics to help increase nutrition interventions.

The issue also provides some useful links of:

Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition – GAIN

Micronutrient Initiative

Save the Children

School Feeding global website

Towards 4 + 5 - Research Programme Consortium on Maternal, Newborn and Child Health

UNICEF - United Nations Children's Fund

United Nations System Standing Committee on Nutrition

World Food Programme

Indian Votes for Loksabha: Phase II 2009

The second phase of elections is for 141 parliamentary seats (see Map). Voting for Inner Manipur took place yesterday. For the remaining 140, it is taking place today (23 April 2009). The distribution across the 12 states are: Andhra Pradesh (20), Assam (11), Bihar (13), Goa (2), Jammu & Kashmir (2), Karnataka (17), Madhya Pradesh (13), Maharashtra (25), Manipur (1), Orissa (11), Tripura (2), Uttar Pradesh (17) and Jharkhand (8). Voting for the remaining assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh (140) and Orissa (77) are also taking place today. As in the case of the first phase, violence has errupted in some parts (particularly, Bihar and Jharkhand).

In the last four to five days I visited Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesha and Nagpur in Vidarbha. In both the places, summer temperature has reached beyond 40 degree, which is three to four degrees above the norm. This could, on the one hand, adversely affect voter turnout, and, on the other, dampen the electioneering spirit. The third phase campaigning needs some thandai.

India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-I 2009

Today, 16 April 2009, is the schedule for the Phase-1 of General Elections 2009 in India to its Parliament (Loksabha). Voting will take place in 124 constituencies spreading across 17 states/union territories. They are one in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, 22 (of the 42) in Andhra Pradesh, two in Arunachal Pradesh, three (of the 14) in Assam, 13 (of the 40) in Bihar, 11 in Chhattisgarh, one (of the six) in Jammu & Kashmir, 20 in Kerala, one in Lakshadweep, 13 (of the 48) in Maharashtra, one (of the two) in Manipur, two in Meghalaya, one in Mizoram, one in Nagaland, six (of the 14) in Jharkhand, 10 (of the 21) in Orissa (see Map). In Andhra Pradesh (154 out of 294) and Orissa (70 of the 147) voters have to also cast for their respective Assembly constituencies. Voting time is from 7am to 5pm.

Some of the prominent places of elections are Vidarbha in Maharashtra (the cotton zone receiving limelight in recent years for increasing farmers' suicides), Chhattisgarh where the Government claims to have created a people's movement (Salwa Judum) to take on Naxalites. The Telengana region in Andhra Pradesh with almost all parties endorsing the formation of a new state. The state also has a new party Praja Rajyam (People's rule) with their matinee idol Chiranjeevi at its helm. Kandhamal in Orissa where one witnessed communal disturbances last year, a reason cited by the current ruling party of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) with Naveen Patnaik as Chief Minister to break ties with their alliance partner Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) just before the current elections. A common thing of the regions in these four states as also Jharkhand is that they are largely from the contiguous geographical region called Dandakaranya of the Central Indian Plateau. They are also either rainfed or dryland regions with high incidences of poverty.

For the 124 loksabha seats 1715 (including 122 women) candidates are in the fray whose fate would be decided by more than 143 million eligible voters. Electronic voting machines would be used. However results have to wait till all the five phases of elections are over. The remaining phases will be on 23 April, 30 April, 7 May, and 13 May. Counting will take place on 16 May 2009.

We are Indians

Today I chanced upon the blog We Are Indians. It is a good one. More importantly it provides links to the manifestos of the two major parties, Congress (or here) and BJP (or here, see highlights) in the run-up to the 2009 general elections. The author has also given a comparison between the two. The most important message from the blog is to go out and vote. From the blog, one could implicitly know that the IBN portal covering the general elections 2009 is a good one.

Detecting Cervical Cancer

In the paper HPV Screening for Cervical Cancer in Rural India, The New England Journal of Medicine 360 (14): 1885-1394, April 2, 2009 Rengaswamy Sankaranarayanan et al. discuss about a cheaper screening alternative for cervical cancer in resource-poor settings. This has positive implications for health care of women in developing countries.

This uses cluster-randomization. From 52 cluster villages 131,746 women in the 30-59 age-group participated. Four group were assigned 13 cluster villages each randomly. Further, the groups were randomly assigned to undergo different screening mechanisms.

One group (34,126 women) was tested through Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) for human papillomavirus (HPV) ; note that Harald zur Hause was one of the recipients of the 2008 Noble prize in Medicine for his discovery of HPV - he received half of the cash award and the other half was shared by Françoise Barré-Sinoussi and Luc Montagnier for their discovery of the human immunodeficiency virus. A second group (32,058 women) was subjected to cytologic testing through a pap smear test where collected tissues are analysed at the cellular structure for early detection of cancer, as is being done for women in developed countries. The third group (34,074 women) was subjected to a visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid (VIA), another low-cost option. Finally, the fourth (control) group (31,488 women) received standard care.

The design, particularly exclusion of care to the control group, was approved by the ethics committee of the institutes involved - International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Nargis Dutt Memorial Cancer Hospital and Tata Memorial Centre. This process of ethical review should be an integral part of randomization experiments by social scientists/economists.

This is a follow-up study based on the period January 2000-December 2007. The results indicate that for the HPV testing group when compared with the control group one observes significant reduction in incidences of advanced cervical cancer as also deaths. This shows promise for women in low-resource settings or developing countries like India.

Another fact about the publication is that there are 18 authors and some of them are graduates (with a Bacelor;s degree) from different backgrounds (Arts, Commerce and Science). This is an ethical lesson that users of large scale survey data in economics/social sciences need to follow.

Dance ... Kathak

Pandit Sunayana Hazarila the Kathak danseuse from Banaras gharana of Pandit Jankiprasad performed at IGIDR as part of SPIC-MCCAY on 28 March 2009. As per her introductory remarks, this dance form emerged the rendition of katha (story) in community forums and temples. The narrator also combined katha with movements of the face, and other body parts. Over time, it also moved into Mogul courts where emphasis on sensuous forms took roots; this being different from the notion of love depicting bhakti, say Radha-Krushna.

The evening was nice, made lively by the Tabla mastro Pandit A Mishra with his interactive sessions, his natkhat pan and the jugalbandi along with Sunayanaji's explanations. Both of them complemented the sound arrangement at IGIDR. Pandit Alka Gujjar with Veena and Pandit S Mishra in Harmonioum provided the perfect background. In the end, the dance by Sunayananji to the rendition of Lashkar na jaiyo (Do not go to war) by Pandit S Mishra in umpteen forms will keep echoing in our minds for a long time.

On a personal note, this was the first time that Nerika joined with us and she sat through the programme as also while giving company to the artists for dinner. We had a nice evening.

At the end the audience is left with the questions whether the ghongroo guides the tabla or the table guides the ghongroo. Either way, they are in awe! And, they want more.

Why Girls grow up with Girls?

In discussions about the problem of dowry leading to indebtedness and adverse social consequences one hears the remark “Why do people take dowry for their sons and then give it to their daughters? Or, is it that they have given it for their daughters and want to take it for their sons.”

While discussing gender in many a public forums/lectures when given a proposition that from those present if one takes all the females and males separately and then aggregates the total number of sisters and brothers including themselves then there would be more number of sisters among the females and more number of brothers among males the overwhelming response is that the proposition cannot be true.

Unfortunately, the proposition is true and the households of net dowry givers are different from net dowry takers. To prove the point, one gives a simple example. In single-child households the divide is complete – either it is a daughter or a son; in two-child households they are either both sisters or both brothers or a sister and a brother; it is only when one comes to three-child households that one observes that there could be a brother with two sisters or a sister with two brothers if they are not either all sisters or all brothers.

This gender divide in society, to begin with, is a statistical generality and it is unfortunate that common sense understanding as also public policy discourse misses this basic point. This gets further aggravated under son-preference.

Monkeying with Brain Activity Data

In The Art of Living: Vipassana Meditation as taught by S N Goenka, William Hart discusses Lord Budddha's observation 2500 years ago of how in a body (including the brain) "Particles continuously arise and vanish, passing into and out of existence, like a flow of vibrations." Thus, the body as also the brain is always in a state of activity. Modern scientists agree to this. That this has not led them to get out of suffering is another matter. What is more, an experiment on brain activity in Monkeys has led to a debate on usage, interpretation and ownership rights of data.

The experiment was carried out in the Max Planc Institute for Biological Cybernatics (MPIBC) at the Physiology of Cognitive Processes Department headed by Professor Nikos K. Logothetis. Amir Shmuel (who was associated with the project as a post-doctoral scholar) and David A. Leopold (who was also earlier associated with the department/institute as a post-doctoral but not as part of this project) came together to write a paper Neuronal correlates of spontaneous fluctuations in fMRI signals in monkey visual cortex: Implications for functional connectivity at rest, Human Brain Mapping, 29 (7): 751-761 (2008).

In fact, the earlier abstract version which was orally presented in a conference did not have Leoplod as a co-author but included Logothetis and two of his other colleagues. Based on the presentation, the editor of Human Brain Mapping invited a paper for consideration in the special issue on 'Endogenous Brain Oscillations and Networks in Functional MRI'. At this stage, Logothetis was of the view that the data collected were not appropriate for this kind of work - the monkeys were exposed to a flickering screen and one cannot consider them to be at rest.

Meanwhile Shmuel got in touch with Leopold and they both wrote the paper. After six weeks of acceptance, Shmuel got in touch with Logothetis who declined to be associated with the work but also raised questions on the methodological aspects and propriety of data usage. On writing to the Max Plank Society (MPS), Professor Herbert Jäckle, a development biologist, acted as a mediator with both parties agreeing that Shmuel can use data for a project that he was associated with.

Logothetis, was however, of the view that the paper should not have been published and should be retracted because of methodological difficulties. See the response How not to study spontaneous activity, NeuroImage, 45 (4): 1080-1089 (2009).

The differences led the editors of Human Brain Mapping to come up with a policy on data usage and post a paper Protecting peer review: Correspondence chronology and ethical analysis regarding Logothetis vs. Shmuel and Leopold, Human Brain Mapping, 30 (2): 347-354 (2009).

Max Plank Society thought that the institute has not been appropriately portrayed and their right to respond has been unfairly delayed. Thus they have uploaded to MPIBC site the one-page Preface - Letter to the Editors, a supporting document The other side of the coin: A factual analysis of the HBM editorial, and communications leading to The history of publication of the one-page letter. The editors of Human Brain Mapping (HBM) would be responding as indicated in the Nature News Society sues journal over right to reply.

This debate has raised a number of issues. The hierarchy between Principal Investigators and other younger colleagues. Data collection should follow certain accepted norms and this may require appropriate institutional set up. Once collected, researchers should have access to it. And, of course, the methodological issues.

There are instances in social sciences as well as health sciences where international agencies or well-endowed researchers in the developed countries take the help of colleagues in developing countries but do not involve them in the post-collection analysis and publication process. These have serious consequences on limiting career opportunities for those who collect data and as a result on the reliability of data. Creating a divide between those who collect data and those who interpret data (based on statistical tools and techniques) has another serious implication. The analysis of data may be superficial in terms of ground level understanding.

Recently I came across a very interesting anecdote. A researcher who had purchased some unit level secondary data and used it for some collaborative exercise with other colleagues. When the other colleagues used the data for a different purpose (which was illegal) the owner of the data (purchaser) considered it to be his/her right to demand and get authorship. Wait a minute, someone said that conflict of interest led to a co-operative outcome. Wow!

Gandhiji's Monkeys convey: "Please do not mess around with our data. It will lead to seeing evil, hearing evil and speaking evil." The 21st Century Monkeys of Gandhiji.

Brazilian lessons for India

In the evening of 18th March 2009 Professor Marcelo Medeiros, Senior Policy Specialist, International Poverty Center, Brazil, had a discussion with some of our colleagues at IGIDR. He has been around for about ten days and participated in Holi celebrations (taking those beautiful photographs) and interacting with many of us.

One of his first observations on India was that we are making the same mistakes that Brazil did during their initial years of liberalization based on Fund-Bank conditionality. There is growth, but it is concentrated and there is a strong case for distribution.

On the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) being operational he was of the view that it should be extended to urban areas, include all adult members of the household and extended to 200 days in a year. In fact, these seem to match with the demand to all political parties being put forth by the Right to Food Campaign.

He also opined that these wage-employment programmes should not be like digging and filling up holes. They should add value. The discussion also veered to how Right to Information (RTI) along with NREGA has helped in empowering the rural poor. Along with this wage-employment programme, I would like to add that there is the need for a comprehensive self-employment programme (as has been suggested by the Report of the Committee on Credit Related Issues under SGSY, Chairman R Radhakrishna, submitted to the Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India) and a strong case for addressing the larger agrarian crisis.

He did mention that a large proportion of individuals/households in Brazil have an account in bank/post office with an id card. This helps in the direct transfer of welfare funds in a timely manner. This is similar to the Smart card experiment under NREGA. But, then we should have a common card for all purposes. Some political parties have put this in their agendas for the forthcoming elections in 2009.

On corruption and crimes he thought that India was much better. He referred to incidents of any entire Any Time Money (ATM) machine being taken away or waylaying of Trucks that carry goods (particularly medicines, as it is very costly). As a response to this the service providers have fitted these with Global Positioning Systems (GPS) so that they could be traced through satellites. In many cities of India, GPS are now being used by providers of some taxi services like MERU and MEGA CABS among others. Whether this has dented the incomes of the usual taxi drivers is to be seen.

Chalo Brazil!

Jan Manch 21 March 2009

I am posting the message from Secretariat - Right to Food Campaign

Jan Manch "Symposium" on Employment Guarantee and the Right To Information
(New Delhi 21st march, 2009)
Basics demands from Political Parties attached.


Dear Friends,

Greetings!

A Jan Manch on Employment Guarantee and the Right to Information will be held in New Delhi on 21 March 2009, in anticipation of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. At this Jan Manch, representatives of all political parties will be invited to present their party's position on these two crucial issues, and to respond to public demands or queries.

This event is being convened under the joint banner of Peoples Action for Employment Guarantee (PAEG) and the National Campaign for Peoples Right to Information (NCPRI). A draft charter of basic demands on employment guarantee, and Right to Information is pasted below and attached too for your perusal. Please send any comments you may have to janmanch09@gmail.com.

This charter of demands will be sent to political parties, and circulated widely, in advance of the Jan Manch.

The Jan Manch will be held on the lawns of Constitution Club (Rafi Marg) in New Delhi, from 10 am to 4 pm. About 5,000 participants are expected to attend from all over the country.

You are cordially invited to participate. If you are coming in a group, please inform the organizers in advance by sending a line tojanmanch09@gmail.com.

All participants are expected to make their own arrangements for travel. We shall help you finding lodging facilities if you inform us in advance (by 18th march, 2009). Subsidized food shall be arranged.


In solidarity,

Jan Manch 09

(Annie Raja, Dithi Bhattacharya, Jean Drze, Nikhil Dey, Radhika Menon, Ramit Basu)


Employment Guarantee: Demands from Political Parties*
The main demands on Employment Guarantee that were agreed upon for inclusion in the charter were as follows:

1. Expansion of the scope of the Employment Guarantee Act (EGA), including:
(a) Individual entitlements: Expansion of the work guarantee from 100 days per household per year to at least 100 days per adult per year.
(b) Enactment of an Urban Employment Guarantee Act.

2. Expansion of the list of permissible works to include rural public services as well as construction and maintenance of rural infrastructure (within the mandatory 60:40 ratio).

3. Reverse the recent freeze on NREGA wages by the Central Government and ensure linking of minimum wages to the Consumer Price Index.

4. Protection of all organizers and activists involved in the implementation of NREGA, including social audits, and investigation of recent incidents of violence against them.

5. Putting in place effective grievance redressal mechanisms.

6. Strengthening of the operational framework for NREGA, including:
Conversion of the Operational Guidelines into mandatory Rules.
Establishment of PRIs where none exist (e.g. Jharkhand).

7. Increase in financial outlays to 2% of GDP, and raising of the allocation for administrative expenses from 4% to 6% of NREGA expenditure. This would help in ensuring guaranteed minimum standards for all mandatory worksite facilities (including crche and drinking water) and minimum transparency measures.

8. Reservation of 50% of all posts in the NREGA machinery (POs, GRSs etc.) for women. Separate Job Cards for widows, separated women and other single women irrespective of their living arrangements.

* Prepared for a Jan Manch to be held in New Delhi on 21 March 2009, in anticipation of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. This Jan Manch is being convened under the joint banner of Peoples Action for Employment Guarantee (PAEG) and the National Campaign for Peoples Right to Information (NCPRI). The demands are based on a preparatory meeting held on 26 February 2009, and follow-up consultations.


Right To Information
The main demands on Right to Information that were agreed upon for inclusion in the charter were as follows:

1. The RTI law carries a strong mandate of the people and should not be amended in any way. Most measures to strengthen it can be undertaken through rules and administrative measures to strengthen implementation.

2. Set up a National Council for the Right to Information (along the lines of the NREGA council), to monitor the implementation of the RTI Act.

3. Set up statutory public grievance commissions across the country, which have powers to redress grievances and to punish errant officials.

4. Make the selection of information commissioners transparent and participatory.

5. Formulate model rules that can be adopted by all states.

6. Ensure Mandatory disclosure under section 4 (suo moto) disclosures, and strengthen this process, including disclosures of all financial transactions.

7. Strengthen information commissions and make them independent by directly voting their budgets and giving them financial and administrative autonomy.

8. Set up Feed Back mechanism regarding applications filed for information from Panchayat up to state to monitor implementation and address weaknesses.

9. Budget for Training of Government Personnel in RTI implementation in the Centre and the State.

10. Budget allocation and ensure spending for spreading awareness through radio and TV to facilitate peoples use of RTI to prevent Corruption and ensure accountability.

11. To ensure transparency of the corporate and private sector, in particular financial matters that affect the larger public interest.


Secretariat - Right to Food Campaign
C/o PHRN
5 A, Jungi House,
Shahpur Jat, New Delhi 110049.
India
website: www.righttofoodindia.org