India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-V 2009

The last and final phase of elections will end on 13 May 2009. This will take place in 86 constituencies spread across nine states. They are Chandigarh (1), Haryana (4), Puducherry (1), Tamil Nadu (39), Uttarakhand (5), Punjab (9), West Bengal (11), Jammu & Kashmir (2), and Uttar Pradesh (14). As the campaigning ends one feels that the desperation and fractions in the Indian National Congress (INC) and its coalition of the United Progressive Alliance is more visible whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its coalition of the National Democratic Alliance seems to be comfortable, though they may not get to the magic figure. Nevertheless, one intuitively feels that there are a number of surprises that one would expect. Post-poll arithmetic would be an interesting exercise.

India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-IV 2009

The fourth phase of elections is on 7 May 2009. There are 86 constituencies spread across eight state going into the polls. They are Bihar (3), Haryana (10), Jammu & Kashmir (1), Punjab (4), Rajasthan (25), Uttar Pradesh (18), West Bengal (17) and the New Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi (8).

In two assembly segments of Nalanda and two of Pataliputra (both in Bihar) the timing for voting is till 3.00 pm only. The battle royal is in NCT Delhi. The patience seems to be running out. People now are eager for these last to phases to get over and the counting to start on 16 May. The indication is that neither the Congress nor the BJP are likely to emerge as strong contenders independently.

India Votes for Loksabha: Phase-III 2009

Tomorrow (30 April 2009) is the third phase of elections. It is being conducted in 107 constituencies spread across 11 states. They are Bihar (11), Gujarat (26), Jammu & Kashmir (1), Karnataka (11), Madhya Pradesh (16), Maharashtra (10), Sikkim (1), Uttar Pradesh (15), West Bengal (14), Dadra & Naagar Haveli (1), and Daman & Diu (1) (see Map).

This phase is special as being in Mumbai, I would also be voting tomorrow. The elections for the ten seats in Maharashtra are those in Mumbai (6) and Thane (4). The Chief Electoral Officer Mumbai has put up helplines for people to find out their booths. The helpline numbers are 2279 3925 and 3219 7767. One can also SMS and get information, the mobile numbers are: 9320 899623, 9320 928504, 9320 948340, 9322 193799, and 9324 376961.

My constituency is Mumbai North West and when I called up I was successful in getting the details of my polling booth (Gurukul Vidyalaya, Ground Floor, Room No.1, General AK Vaidya Marg, Malad (E)). This is close to my place of residence at IGIDR.

I will elaborate a little more about my constituency. There are 21 candidates in the fray. They are: Athar Siddiqui (Bahujan Samaj Party, BSP), Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant (Indian National Congress, INC), Gajanan Kirtikar (Shiv Sena, SHS, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP), Aggarwal Rishi Dharampal (Jago Party (JGP), a new party with base in Rajasthan that is against corruption), Abu Asim Azmi (Samajwadi Party, SP), Jadhav Bhikaji Gangaram (Kranti Kari Jai Hind Sena), Thakare Shalini Jitendra (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), a party formed after splintering from Shiv Sena), Tawade Dilip Narayan (All India Forward Bloc), Pawar Subhash Pandurang (Prabuddha Republican Party), Vaijanath Sangram Gaikwad (Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangha) and eleven independents - Anita Ramkrushan Rupawate, Kamble Satish Kisan, Dayanand Nivruti Kamble, Dhotre Maruti Yamnappa, Ninad Manjardekar, Pramod Sitaram Kasurde, Bhatia Ripudaman Singh (a marine engineer), Mohammed Rafiq Abdul Razak Shaikh, Mahadev Limbaji Galphade, Dr. Vijay Bhave (a child specialist), and Santosh Pandurang Chaike.

As a layman one began by thinking that Ad Gurdas Kamat (INC) and Gajanan Kirtikar (SHS) are strong contenders. The former's traditional vote bank may be dented by Athar Siddiqui (BSP)and Abu Azmi (SP) whereas Shalini Thakare (MNS) may dent that of Kirtikar. In fact, an on line poll in Mumbai Mirror for Mumbai Nort West gives more than half the votes to Athar Siddiqui and 15 per cent to Shalini Thakare. For the other five Mumbai constituencies the Mumbai Mirror results are as follows. Dr. Mona Shah (Professional Party of India) and the Banker Meera Sanyal (Indepent) doing well in Mumbai South. Sanjay Nirupam (INC), Shirish Parkar (MNS) and Ram Naik (BJP) are fighting it out in Mumbai North. Priya Dutt Roncon (INC) is ahead of Shilpa Sarpotdar (MNS) who seems to be denting BJP's Ram Jathmalani in Mubai North Central. Shailen Ghosh (Independent) and Shweta Parlekar (MNS) seem to be doing better than Eknath Gaikwad (INC) and Suresh Gambhir (SHS). In Mumbai North East, Shishir Shinde (MNS) seems to be better poised than that of Kirit Somaiya of BJP and Sanjay Dina Patil of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

The Times of India's Lead India series indicates that Mumbai North West looks for Mr Clean while highlighting the candidatures of Kamat, Kirtikar, Azmi and Thakare. On line voting of issues by Mumbai Votes identified corruption, terrorism, public transport, disaster management and environmental protection. Based on the Manifesto and promises of the contenders, Rishi Aggarwal of JGP seems to be the real Mr Clean.

In Mumbai North West, five candidates have provided their profile in websites and four of them have a group in facebook in their support. They are Rishi Aggarwal (FB group), Abu Azmi (FB group), Shalini Thakare (FB group), Ripudaman Bhatia (FB group), and Dr Vijay Bhave.

A broad reading at this stage is that MNS is going to give a run to BJP-Shiv Sena combine in the city. If only they would not have cultivated an anti-North Indian image they would have been a force to reckon with. There is a mood for change and there are going to be some major surprises. The dampener is that with a holiday being declared tomorrow, followed by labour day May 1st and the weekend many people might have taken a break and gone out of the city. Nevertheless, my word is that INC-NCP and BJP-SHS better watch out!

Indian Votes for Loksabha: Phase II 2009

The second phase of elections is for 141 parliamentary seats (see Map). Voting for Inner Manipur took place yesterday. For the remaining 140, it is taking place today (23 April 2009). The distribution across the 12 states are: Andhra Pradesh (20), Assam (11), Bihar (13), Goa (2), Jammu & Kashmir (2), Karnataka (17), Madhya Pradesh (13), Maharashtra (25), Manipur (1), Orissa (11), Tripura (2), Uttar Pradesh (17) and Jharkhand (8). Voting for the remaining assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh (140) and Orissa (77) are also taking place today. As in the case of the first phase, violence has errupted in some parts (particularly, Bihar and Jharkhand).

In the last four to five days I visited Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesha and Nagpur in Vidarbha. In both the places, summer temperature has reached beyond 40 degree, which is three to four degrees above the norm. This could, on the one hand, adversely affect voter turnout, and, on the other, dampen the electioneering spirit. The third phase campaigning needs some thandai.