27 April 2012

RRA Network Internship Programme

The RRA Network recently launched the ResRA (Re-searching Rainfed Agriculture) group, as part of its strategic commitment to knowledge for sustainable and equitable development of rainfed areas.The ResRA group is facilitating the RRA Network Internship Programme.

Summer Intern with RRA Network



The internship programme has been conceived with the objective of creating learning opportunities that will catalyse the interest, creativity and commitment of students pursuing their Bachelors and Masters degree from diverse disciplines to acquire and use their knowledge and skills for understanding of rainfed areas. The RRA Network can support up to 12 interns this summer.

More information about the internship programme can be found at on the network homepage and the particulars on summer intern here.

Prospective applicants may also benefit from the following research questions while preparing a one-page write-up on expectation and motivation.


No.

Node

Key Research Hypotheses and Questions in Rainfed Agriculture
1
WATER
The Argument: Water management in rainfed agriculture should build the perspective of “water-as-protection” away from that of intensive exploitation of water resources. The key task is to operationalise the concept of Rainfall Use Efficiency (RUE - productivity per unit of rainfall) in management of both surface and groundwater.
Key Hypotheses:
Protective irrigation can
·         lead to x-fold increase in productivity;
·         lead to significantly increased income; and 
·         lead to enhanced food security for small and marginal farmers
Key Questions:
·         What are the key methods available for management of soil moisture and providing protective to maximise rainfall use efficiency in rainfed agriculture?
·         What is the incentive structure required for soil moisture management, protective irrigation and operationalisation of the concept of RUE?
·         What are the key challenges of sustainable management of groundwater resources from the perspective of water-as-protection in rainfed areas?
·         What is the impact of a) soil moisture management; b) groundwater management and c) protective irrigation on
o   soil moisture availability?
o   plant productivity?
o   household incomes?
·         What is the unit cost and investment required in a) soil moisture management; b) groundwater management and c) protective irrigation?
·         Which are the ongoing programmes through which the programme of water management in rainfed areas could be upscaled to mobilise public investment? What are the necessary changes in the programme architecture of ongoing programmes required to promote such upscaling?
2
SOILS
The Argument: The approach to soil fertility has to move away from adding nutrients to the soil to maintaining soil health, reducing soil erosion and enhancing the water holding capacity of soils.
Key Hypotheses:
·         Addition of organic matter @2 tonnes per acre per year can enhance soil health, ensure crop productivity, reduce cost of cultivation and increase farm incomes.
·         Though farmers realise the importance of soil organic matter, there are some systemic bottlenecks (financial, labour, natural resource based) that need to be overcome for wide adoption of such practices. These bottlenecks can be overcome through public investment and capacity building of communities. 
Key Questions:
·         What are the ways to add bulk organic matter to soil under different rainfed conditions? Does this norm of 2 tonnes per acre per year vary in different rainfed typologies?
·         What is the structure of incentives and key areas of public investment essential for facilitating application of organic matter to soils to enhance soil productivity?
·         What is the impact of addition of organic matter to soil on:
o   soil properties (physical, chemical and hydrological)
o   crop productivity
o   cost of inputs
o   farm incomes
·         What are the best uses of organic amendments to cropping systems by farmers to improve soil nutrients and water holding capacities and thereby assist in restoring agro-ecosystems
·         Which are the ongoing programmes through which the soil productivity enhancement programmes could be upscaled? What are the necessary changes in the programme architecture of ongoing programmes required to promote such upscaling?
3
SEED SYSTEMS
The Argument:
Seed security in rainfed agriculture requires that a locally managed, decentralised seed system is place to provide timely supply of quality seeds of a wide range of seed options in sufficient quantities.
Key Hypotheses:
·         The absence of timely availability of adequate quantities of contingent seeds is key factor responsible for the uncertainty and poor returns inherent in rainfed farming
·         Farmers use hybrid seeds because of the non-availability of non-hybrid seeds. If non-hybrid seeds are provided, then farmers in rainfed areas would prefer these over hybrids on the consideration of enhanced seed security through farmer-saved seeds.
·         A considerable amount of the subsidy provided on seeds in India goes to the corporate sector and not to the farmers.
Key Questions:
·         What are the available methods of ensuring seed security in rainfed agriculture through locally managed, decentralised seed systems?
·         What is the structure of incentives required for local communities to develop their own seed storage and distribution systems?
·         How do we assess the impact of a locally managed, decentralised seed system on
o   timely availability of seeds
o   quality of seeds
o   farm productivity
o   farm incomes
·         How does a locally managed, decentralised seed system compare with current system of seeds in terms of the cost of providing seeds to the farmers?
·         Which are the ongoing programmes through which the soil productivity enhancement programmes could be upscaled? What are the necessary changes in the programme architecture of ongoing programmes required to promote such upscaling?
4
LAND USE & MILLETS
The Argument: A diversified cropping system, in which millets play a crucial role, is essential for household food security and enhancement of the resilience of rainfed agriculture to climate-related vulnerability. Farm forestry and tree crops play a critical role in this diversified farming system.   
Key Hypotheses:
·         The easy availability of rice and wheat in the PDS is responsible for the reduction in acreage devoted to millets.
·         The difficulties of processing millets are responsible for lower preference of millets compared with rice and wheat.
·         A 25% allocation of millets to the PDS basket will lead to a xxx% increase in acreage under millets; yyy% reduction in agricultural water consumption, and higher nutrition security.
·         Devoting 25% of the grains procured for mid-day meals scheme to millets will lead to a xxx% increase in acreage under millets; and yyy% reduction in agricultural water consumption and higher nutrional security.
·         Farm forestry and vegetation of “wastelands” and commons is vital for poverty reduction in rainfed areas.
Key Questions:
·         What are the millet-based cropping systems available for the different natural resource configurations in rainfed agriculture?
·         Which are the prominent millet growing regions in rainfed India? What is the millets share (percentage) in the household food grain consumption across districts at present, 10, 20 years back?
·         Why has the area under millets cultivation declined in these regions?
·         What is the incentive price that stimulates household demand for millets? Are there any other drivers, say, for e.g., value added products?
·         What are the types of incentives (price, subsidy, public investment) needed to promote a millets-based cropping system?
·         Evaluate INSIMP program –Does stand alone productivity enhancement activities enhance millets area?
·         What is the impact of millets cultivation on rainfed agriculture in terms of
o   soil fertility
o   food security
o   climate resilience
·         What is the economics of millets cultivation in terms of per hectare costs, returns and profitability? How can this system be compared to a conventional irrigated cropping system?
·         What are the macro-economic implications of a 10-25% shift towards millets in the public funded and food entitlements-based programmes (PDS, ICDS, MDMS etc.) – implications in terms of water use, saving of electricity, fertiliser consumption, quality of land and household nutrition levels?
·         Which species of trees need to be promoted for wasteland afforestation and revegetation of common land?
·         What is the role of contract farming in tree crops? What are the institutional mechanisms required for productive utilisation of the so-called wastelands or commons through community effort?
5
NO-PESTICIDE MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURE
The Argument: Sustainable crop management practices of NPM agriculture reduces cost of cultivation, enhances soil health and reduces chemical contamination of food and water.
Key Hypotheses:
·         High premiums and uncertain availability are key factors that have served as bottlenecks to urban consumption of organic produce.
·         There exists a market for the NPM produce where the customers are willing to pay a 15% premium for NPM produce.
·         An NPM based Participatory Guarantee System and development of NPM label provide benefits of certification and market access to a large number of small and marginal farmers in rainfed areas who are “default organic” farmers.   
Key Questions:
·         What are the locally appropriate and low cost plant protection technologies available for NPM agriculture? What is the type of research required to develop such technologies?
·         How can the farmers be incentivised to adopt the NPM agricultural practices?
·         What is the impact of NPM agriculture on
o   Crop productivity (Is there a yield drop? For how many years?)
o   Soil health
o   Farm incomes
o   Chemical contamination of food and water
·         What is the cost economics of an NPM based farming system compared to the conventional system?
·         How can NPM agriculture be upscaled through ongoing programmes like the RKVY?
·         Can pest management be converted to a public good through agro-advisories and public support systems?
6
LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS
The Argument: The existing livestock support systems for market access, animal healthcare and risk minimisation need to be re-designed to suit the specific needs of rainfed agriculture and to match the types of livestock holdings in such areas.
Key Hypotheses:
·         Animal husbandry systems based on low-input, indigenous breeds are more suited to high-input, cross-bred cattle in rainfed areas. With adequate support, they can perform better than the cross-breds.
·         Poor delivery of animal health services is a key factor for high morbidity and mortality observed among livestock holdings in rainfed areas.
·         The small ruminant sector is the fastest growing animal husbandry sector in the country.
·         Small ruminant management, with high quality health care, provides a realistic route out of poverty.
·         Management of backyard poultry provides a route out of poverty
Key Questions:
·         Identify components of a sustainable livestock system for rainfed areas. The system will have:
o   Identification of varieties suitable to different contexts
o   Creation of a strong water infrastructure and fodder base
o   Creation of animal healthcare systems
o   Creation of market structures for livestock products
o   Risk minimisation through insurance
o   Linking these activities with producer organisations and SHGs
·         What are the livestock mortality rates in rainfed areas and what is the status of livestock health care services? A quick survey across different states may bring out the basic issues on board statistically. This quick survey can be taken up by different field partner organisations.
·         How can we incentivise farmers to move towards locally appropriate forms of animal husbandry systems and practices? What are the key shifts required?
·          How do we incentivise backyard poultry as a sustainable activity? Analyse backyard poultry as a production system and its role in the overall poultry sector.
·         What is the impact of a well-functioning animal healthcare system on calf mortality, animal health and household incomes? Does insurance help households to minimise risk?
·         What is the scope to link livestock systems and essential services with ongoing public investment programmes like MGNREGA or NRLM?
·         What is the institutional back-up and support required for carrying forward livestock rearing (including small ruminants and backyard poultry) as an economic activity in rainfed areas? What are the institutional models available?
7
RAINFED FISHERIES
The Argument: Fisheries and acquaculture are significant livelihood activities in rainfed areas. The existing fisheries support systems need to be adapted and modified to take care of the specific needs of rainfed fisheries.
Key Hypotheses:
·         The non-availability of fish fry is a key bottleneck to making inland fisheries sustainable and profitable.
·         Institutional reform is likely to be a key factor in transforming the viability of inland fisheries.
Key Questions:
·         What are the existing methods and technologies of rainfed fish production? How can this system be made more productive?
·         What are the existing management systems for rainfed fisheries? How can the rights of the landless households be recognised and incorporated in rainfed fisheries?
·         What are the incentives required for farmers to take up fisheries as an income generating activity in rainfed areas? What is the nature of public investment support required for this?
·         Examine the economics of sustainable fisheries development in rainfed agriculture. How does this cost and returns compare with other forms of fisheries development?
·         How can a programme of rainfed fisheries be linked to and upscaled through the ongoing public investment programmes?
8
FARM MECHANISATION
The Argument: Locally appropriate farm mechanisation is essential in rainfed agriculture.
Key Questions:
·         What are the implications of mechanization on agricultural labour and food security? Is the impact of mechanisation in rainfed areas disproportionately on women (i.e., the gender aspects of farm mechanisation)?
·         What is the macro-economic significance of animal draft power (for agriculture and transport of produce) in rainfed areas? What is its significance for small holders?
·         What would be the desired mechanisation for rainfed areas?
·         What are the institutional mechanisms available for farm mechanisaion for small holders
·         How can a locally appropriate farm mechanisation be incentivised?
9
SRI/SCI
The Argument: The System of Rice Intensification (SRI – or more generally, the System of Crop Intensification – SCI) marks a paradigm shift in management of land, labour, water and resources in a rainfed farming system.
Key Hypotheses:
·         SRI/SCI is a sustainable crop management system appropriate for rainfed areas in terms of cost, returns, labour use and maintenance of soil health.
·         There are some financial and behavioural bottlenecks to full transition to SRI/SCI in rainfed areas, which can be overcome through carefully planned transitional investments.  
Key Questions:
·         What are the key steps involved in establishing SRI as a viable option in rainfed areas? What are the innovations and experimentation required to further strengthen SRI?
·         What are the incentives and transitional investments necessary for farmers to move into SRI? How can they be structures to facilitate uptake by all classes of farmers?
·         What is the impact of SRI on crop yields, labour sue, input use and soil health? How does SRI enhance household incomes?
·         What is the economics of SRI? What are the major costs and returns?
·         How can SRI be integrated with MGNREGA and other such programmes? Can these programmes be structures in a way that they take care of the necessary transitional investments for a minimum number of years?
10
INSTITUTIONS
The Argument: Smallholder farmers in rainfed areas need to be supported by several key institutions (for production, marketing, finance, research & extension and capacity building services). These institutions are required to provide key technical services, increase market access of smallholders through aggregation and to undertake essential infrastructure investments in rainfed agriculture.
Key Questions:
·         What are the appropriate forms of producer organisations needed to address specific issues of small and marginal farmers in rainfed areas?
·         What are the existing legal spaces available for developing producer organisaitons? How can these be utilised to foster new institutions of the people in rainfed areas?
·         What is the institutional framework required for marketing, finance, research and extension services in rainfed agriculture? What are the principal shortcomings of the existing institutional mechanisms and how could they be overcome?
·         Are SHG Institutions relevant for agricultural development? (not only for credit but also for value addition and service delivery)?
·         What are the principal capacity building needs of farmers and PRIs in  rainfed areas. What type of institutional framework  could be envisaged to meet these needs?
·         What is the performance, problems and potentials of producer companies as New Generation Co-operatives? Are they relevant for small holders?
·         What are the promotional (establishment) investments required to develop these producer organisations?
·         How the extension system to be redesigned? Is there a case for community based extension?
·         How the extension system to be redesigned? Is there a case for community based institutions for extension services?
·         What were the investments on farmers’ organisation so far? Why this has to be (whether it is) exclusively dependent on voluntary action / with donor funds?
·         How can the role of producer organisations be integrated with the implementation of programmes like NRLM?
11
Financial Services to the Poor
The Argument: The poor actively participate in financial markets to get a wide range of financial services. Easy and affordable access to a wide range of financial services is crucial for the survival of small and marginal farmers in rainfed areas.
Key Hypotheses:
·         Small and marginal farmers actively participate in financial market – i.e., they can save, productively use credit and repay borrowed amount with interest and participate in insurance markets.
·         The reach of formal sources providing financial services such as banks, co-operatives, insurance companies etc., is low in rainfed areas. The small and marginal farmers, in particular, depend on a range of informal sources to meet their essential financial needs.
·          Institutional innovations like SHGs offer a range of financial products to the poor in rainfed areas which are suited to their needs and types of cash flow.
Key Questions:
·         What are the key avenues available for financial saving by smallholder households in rainfed areas? Are the conventional saving products offered by the formal system adequate to meet their needs? Is there a case of devising new saving products to help smallholders in rainfed agriculture to build their savings and capital base?
·         What is the outreach of formal credit system and financial institutions in rainfed areas? What proportion of the household’s financial need to they meet?
·         What is the outreach of the new sources of credit like the SHGs in rainfed areas? What are the critical bottlenecks preventing their expansion?
·         Is there sufficient evidence of smallholder and landless labour exclusion from credit sector? If yes, what are the major reasons for this exclusion?
·         What is the reach and role of KCC and smart cards in rainfed areas?
·         What is the reach and role of the Warehouse Receipts System? Do banks in rainfed areas accept warehouse receipts as liquid assets?
·         What is the status of insurance services in rainfed areas? What are the critical bottlenecks preventing the adoption of insurance as a risk-distribution mechanism?
·         What is the reason for the poor performance of crop and livestock insurance in rainfed agriculture? Are options like weather-based crop insurance adequate as a risk cover mechanism?



Summer Intern with RRA Network

08 April 2012

I will not enter into deals



I have been hit below the belt,
The agony is still being felt.

Please give me some time,
It is not just loosing a dime.

Well, it was a real hard blow,
I have seen harder ones though.

True, there is nothing so new,
When one has a different view.

The bruises will start to heal,
I will now take on with zeal.

This will also soon pass over,
As one starts with new fervour.

But, I will not change my values,
And, I will not enter into deals.

(Being hit below the belt can refer to a personal crisis but it can also refer to a larger crisis like the 2008 financial crisis or the current European crisis or even the problems that led to the Arab spring or other aspects that can be related to Easter or Passover or similar aspects in other religions. In such situations, one can replace I, me and my with we, us and our respectively. Further to have an impact while singing in a group, the first two lines can be repeated before every couplet. Keeping in line with the message from Easter/Passover one has kept the last line, and not the first one, as the title. For an earlier version, see Friends, give me some time, written on Good Friday.)


© Srijit Mishra, 8 April 2012, Easter/Passover

[Comment added on 13 April 2012: To move out from a low to high the poem could be recited twice. In the first instance, the first two lines are repeated before each couplet whereas in the second instance the last two lines are repeated after every couplet. Today is Maha Bishuba Sankranti/Bihu/Vishu. Have lots of juices for the upcoming summer and keep yourself well hydrated while humming the lines.]

Added 25 April 2012: On an academic front, if you are interested in Why Parties Enter Into Unfair Deals see the paper by Justin Malon.



06 April 2012

Friends, give me some time

Friends, give me some time,
It is not just loosing a dime.

I have been hit below the belt,
The agony is still being felt.

Well, it was a real hard blow,
I have seen harder ones though.

True, there is nothing so new,
When one has a different view.

The bruises will start to heal,
I will now take on with zeal.

Without changing my values,
Without entering into deals.

© Srijit Mishra, 6 April 2012, Good Friday

This has been revised, see I will not enter into deals.


21 March 2012

It is all in the line, our poverty line

The poverty estimates for 2009-10 in India by the Planning Commission has pegged the per capita per day poverty lines at 28.65 rupees in urban areas and 22.43 rupees in rural areas. Comparable poverty lines for 2004-05 are 19.29 rupees and 14.89 rupees respectively (see a note on poverty estimates for 2004-05).



Compared to 2004-05, the poverty line of 2009-10 has increased by 48.5 per cent and 50.6 per cent in urban and rural areas respectively.  During the same period, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Non-manual Employees (CPI-NME) and Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL) increased by 48.8 per cent and 54.9 per cent respectively, as indicated in Key Indicators of Household Consumer Expenditure in India 2009-10 (see Table T7, p.17). An independent calculation of the CPI for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) indicates that between the financial years of 2004-05 and 2009-10 CPI-IW increased by 45.2 per cent. 

The 2004-05 estimates were updated to June 2001 in the Planning Commission's affidavit to the Supreme Court in October 2011 and pegged at 32 rupees and 26 rupees (rather, 32.16 rupees and 26.03 rupees) for urban and rural areas respectively. If 2009-10 estimates are used to update for June 2011 then an inflation accounted for by CPI-IW and CPI-AL indicates a poverty line of  32.25 rupees and 25.35 rupees for urban and rural areas respectively. Thus, the poverty line for rural, if not for urban, India indicates a decline when compared to the affidavit. 

These all may give the impression that we might be close at the urban level but miss the bus at the rural level.  However, a closer look at CPI-IW for food between the two financial years indicates an increase of 58.7 per cent. A relatively higher increase for food in CPI-AL is also expected.

The food price inflation in recent years is a known fact, but it has implications for the methodology used by the Planning Commission. At a given level of basket with food comprising a higher share, the poverty line should have increased more than the general price increase. If this has not happened then as per 2009-10 estimates from the consumption expenditure the price increase in non-food items was higher or something still remains unexplained - the calculation of the poverty line is a black box.

Further, at the actual expenditure there could be a shift in the consumption basket from food to non-food items and this would not be because of choice, but because of compulsions arising out of relative prices. The estimates given by the Planning Commission, who have already done the calculations, do not elaborate on this point. But, then they reiterate that it not about a point, it is a line.



This reminds me of a story. A well meaning ruler appointed 'accomplished' persons as advisers who articulated improving well-being through hard work, dedication and competition. The ruler was so convinced that people who were lazy, casual and non-performers (including the poor, the sick, and the old) were asked to improve, failing which they were banished from the kingdom. The latter was followed in letter and spirit by able and objective administrators who were not swayed by human emotions. Despite that, every time the ruler reviewed the situation there always existed a pool of poor and sick and some young people who looked old. To top it all they were losers and were the ones who could not make use of all the incentives given (in the form of subsidies and tax deductions among others) to succeed. No one could provide any answers.

The ruler was worried and would go into contemplative moods about what went wrong in banishing the lazy hares. Suddenly, one fine day (we will narrate the incident some other time) it chanced upon the ruler that competition by design has to have a winner and a looser. No matter what you do you cannot do away with the looser. Then how does the ruler showcase his achievements among the people and more so among the comity of nations. Reversing the policy of banishing 'lazy hares' or not incentivizing winners is not possible. Thus, the ruler after deliberation with thinkers agreed to take a middle position 'competition that is inclusive'. The change in the slogan was mere cosmetic and things continued as usual except for the fact that the non-performers were not banished. They were allowed to stay and some efforts were made to rehabilitate some of them and in some cases a policy of 'give them fish without teaching them how to catch' was also followed.



The combination of policies did not have the desired effect. Poverty did not get reduced. Good minds were put to work to arrive at a method of calculating poverty. The method did away with the baggage of calorie consumption instead of adding nutritional concerns. It was made robust enough for other minds to have difficulty in comprehending and their efforts in replicating it will only result in they loosing their minds (only Alexander can cut the Gordian knot). Thus, all eyes were on the method. And lo and behold, it showed results.  One has to concede that it is all in the line, our poverty line.

(Revised 21 March and 24 March 2012. Thanks to Mitali Chatterjee, Kinnary Desai and Smit Gade for comments). 

04 March 2012

The 'I Know' Syndrome


There is this old adage that 'people staying in glass houses should not throw stones at each other'.  By extension, they should also not throw stones at others including those staying in stone houses because a retaliation can be dangerous for them. However, what is much more important is that the rules for the former need not be applied to the latter and vice-versa because the residents of the stone houses can throw stones (or let us say balls with the wall serving as markers like goalposts or stumps) at each others houses and still not harm each other, but they can harm those staying in glass houses.


If one of them represents the elite and the other the commoner (will differ from situation to situation) then it means that the former cannot decide on rules for the latter based on their experience. This is so because they cannot perceive the real world of others. Hence, the elite cannot and should not make policies for the commoner without understanding the latter perspective.

But, in the real world, I am afraid that, policy suggestion are articulated from a perspective that is redundant and irrelevant for whom it is intended. We refer to this as the 'I Know' syndrome. People in the West have an opinion on what is good for the East or should I say Middle East, the North articulates out the right path for the South, people in high rise think that they have the right solution for the homeless or those staying in the slums, people manning the Governments think that they do the correct thing for its poor. In practice, the policy maker, more often than not, is devoid of a real world understanding; they do not have either a field perspective or a peoples perspective.

People staying in structures that require more energy when alternative structures would have helped achieve the same will not and cannot understand the relevance of climate change and even less that their structures are also a cause of climate change. Bureaucrats and scientists working in silos cannot understand that agriculture is not only about food but more importantly about a symbiotic relationship between people and nature and a way of life that has social and cultural implications.



What is required is the policy maker should get out of their silos and meet and interact with people and understand their perspective on a continuous basis. This will be a good attempt to get out of the 'I Know'  syndrome.


-----
The Glass House Syndrome (the earlier version, prior to 24 April 2012, see details at the end below)


There is this old adage that 'people staying in glass houses should not throw stones at each other'.  By extension, they should also not throw stones at others including those staying in stone houses because a retaliation can be dangerous for them. However, what is much more important is that the rules for the former need not be applied to the latter because the residents of the stone houses can throw stones (or let us say balls with the wall serving as markers like goalposts or stumps) at each others houses and still not harm each other. 

If glass and stone stand as euphemism for elite and commoner respectively then it means that the former cannot decide on rules for the latter based on their experience. This is so because even if the people staying in glass houses can see what is happening outside that vision is truncated because they cannot see what is happening inside the other houses and they definitely cannot feel, hear, smell and speak to the others. In short, their senses cannot perceive the real world of others. Hence, those staying in glass houses cannot and should not make policies for the commoner without understanding the latter perspective.

But, in the real world, I am afraid that, policy suggestion are articulated from a perspective that is redundant and irrelevant for whom it is intended. We refer to this as the glass house syndrome. People in the West have an opinion on what is good for the East or should I say Middle East, the North articulates out the right path for the South, people in high rise think that they have the right solution for the homeless or those staying in the slums, people manning the Governments think that they do the correct thing for its poor. In practice, the policy maker, more often than not, is devoid of a real world understanding; they do not have either a field perspective or a peoples perspective.

People staying in glass houses will not and cannot understand the relevance of climate change and even less that their glass houses are also a cause of climate change. Bureaucrats and scientists working in glass houses cannot understand that agriculture is not only about food but more importantly about a symbiotic relationship between people and nature and a way of life that has social and cultural implications.

Well, to be fair to the glass house resident, they are perhaps not throwing stones, but then the world does not require their cotton either.  What is required is the policy maker should get out of the glass house and meet and interact with people and understand their perspective on a continuous basis. This will be a good attempt to get out of the glass house syndrome.
-----

24 April 2012: This blog was revised after reading People who live in glass houses: growing food not throwing stones. It was also because of this that the title of the blog was changed to 'the stone throwing syndrome' from 'the glass house syndrome' .

30 April 2012: The title was again changed to I Know Syndrome because 'stone throwing' can refer to a form of protest that common people use. 

Also see my, In search of a paradigm.

27 February 2012

In search of a paradigm

Debates and discussions in the academic, media and public policy circles with regard to socio-economic issues have a tendency to identify positions as either Right or Left. The questioning mind thinks whether Right is right and  Left is to be left or is it the other way round where Right is to be left and Left is right. One talks of the virtues of the market a la Adam Smith and the other the virtues of a classless society a la Karl Marx.

http://www.artonfix.com/files/imagecache/large/media/daniel-mackie-thinkers-adam-smith-and-karl-marx.JPG
Daniel Mackie, Thinkers, Adam Smith and Karl Marx
Among lay persons the discussions at times can point to the right-hand use among people being the norm whereas the left-hand use being an aberration by the supporters of Right, which is countered by stating that left-hand users are smarter and intelligent by the supporters of Left. There are others who want to broker peace and point out that there are advantages in both the hands while conceding that there can be situations where we are more attuned to the right and some others where we are more attuned to the left. But then a middle position leaves an unanswered question with regard to the appropriate paradigm. Are we both Right and Left? Or, are we neither Right nor Left? These questions put us in a catch-22 situation.

Getting back, the virtues of the market as also that of classless society have their own merit. The market gives the freedom to individuals to exchange their goods and services and because of the existence of large number of buyers and sellers none of them can determine the prices and it is this that can do away with any vested interest. A classless society does away with any kind of hierarchy and with it any power relationships that can lead to vested interest are also done away with. Both these are ideal situations that do away with some form of vested interest.

The doing away of vested interests is also articulated through the impartial spectator in Adam Smith's Moral Sentiments and the need is conveyed by the corruption of our moral sentiments, which is occasioned by the disposition to admire the rich and the great, and to despise or neglect persons of poor and mean condition. The role of the impartial spectator is taken forward in recent times by Amartya Sen in The Idea of Justice.

Another idea of doing away with vested interest is John Rawls' 'original position'. Here the individuals enter into an agreement by remaining under a veil of ignorance where they do not know their identities, as articulated in A Theory of Justice.

A very powerful call to our moral power is invoked when Mahatma Gandhi gave us a talisman. This talisman suggests that whenever in doubt an individual should recall the face of the most vulnerable person and contemplate whether the action to be taken will be of any help to that person and provide them with swaraj and it is this that will lead to one's doubt as also one's self melting away.  There will be no vested interest.

Steve Jobs in his commencement address (also see video below) to students at Stanford University refers to three stories from his life. The third one states that since he was 17 years old he has been starting his day every day by contemplating that it could be his last and it is this invoking of death that does away with all redundant things - external expectations, pride, fear, embarrassment or failure; only truly important things remain.  This reminds us about John Donne's Death be not proud, but more importantly it is also a very powerful moral power that does away with vested interest. 



Speaking about the contemporary political scenario in India one cannot but agree about the public perception of honesty and integrity by its Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. At least with regard to financial propriety at a personal level and without going into ideological differences and some other acts of omission and commission, one can also name half-a-dozen  Chief Ministers from different states cutting across political parties such as Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal, Manik Sarkar of Tripura, Narendra Modi of Gujarat, Naveen Patnaik of Odisha, Nitish Kumar of Bihar and Prithviraj Chavan of Maharashtra among others who are also known to satisfy the acid test of public probity in some sense. This is a good thing and a necessary condition to root out vested interests leading to corruption, but it is neither a sufficient condition nor the only test required for good governance.

For instance, being personally honest does not mean that we can assume that everyone around us is also honest. The assumption of trust is a positive thing, but this cannot be the basis of a statecraft to allow markets to rule the roost. Similarly, espousing a classless society through different process does not necessarily mean the absence of hierarchies and vested interests, as the recent experiences in the umpteen years of Left rule in West Bengal or the fall of the erstwhile Soviet Union suggest.

Markets or a classless setup are means to do away with some forms of vested interest so that people live in a fair society.  Thus, as a deeper reading of Adam Smith, Karl Marx and John Rawls would show, it is people with plural concerns who should be at the centre of focus - the ends. As Amartya Sen would say, it is the enhancing of capabilities of people so that they can be and do what they have reason to value is what matters. These have been articulated in numerous ways in the Human Development Reports of the last two decades.

So, to sum up, the question of either Right or Left, or, neither Right nor Left are not the appropriate ones. One can use, markets as also classless set-up or any other means or none of them to help people depending on the context. One should take advantage of these as also other means and tools when required, but should also be on the guard for adverse implication that can come out of the usage of these. But, most importantly one should never loose sight of the people-centric approach, our end. It is this that takes us in our search for a paradigm to one called 'human development'.

An interesting note, tangentially related is Karl Marx and Adam Smith Drop In On Occupy Wall Street. This link and the link to some of the photographs have been put up on 25 April 2012.

10 January 2012

To Bt Or Not To Bt?

To Bt Or Not To Bt? Risk and Uncertainty Considerations in Technology Assessment is the title of a new working paper from IGIDR by Sarthak Gaurav and myself (Srijit Mishra). I give below the abstract and some extracts from the Introduction and Conclusion, but without the references.

Abstract
The acreage under the transgenic Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton seeds in India has risen significantly since its legalization in the year 2002. Discussions on the advantages from the technology have focused on increments in productivity and income, without much analysis on risk. We point out that claims on productivity gains seem to be misplaced, as appropriate counterfactuals do not exist for the same hybrids. In this article we analyse production costs and crop incomes in drought years to test a simplistic theory of risk based on first principles. We employ a mixed-methods framework to draw inferences by combining data from two cross-sectional surveys in Gujarat (Saurashtra and Southern-Plains) and Maharashtra (Western Vidarbha) for the period 2009-10 and compare it with unit-level data for the corresponding regions from a nationally representative sample for the period 2002-03. Empirical evidence, though limited, brings out the problem of how a high cost technology could be associated with higher risks and may be dominated by traditional alternatives under certain conditions. Ethnographic accounts from the field provide qualitative support to our understanding of potential risks and uncertainties associated with the new technology.

Introduction
It is observed that in less than a decade since its legal introduction in 2002, there has been a remarkable diffusion of Bt cotton technology in India, with  the genetically modified seeds being used to cultivate nearly 90 per cent of the total area under cotton in 2010.  During this period, the yields and overall production has increased on an average, and India, which is the second largest producer of cotton in the world, became a net exporter of cotton from being a net importer. Should we accept these trends as evident of a successful adoption of the technology? Or, is there something more than what meets the eye – like the dominance of the QWERTY technology for keyboard layouts? In other words, can the increasing acreage under Bt cotton be solely attributed to inherent benefits of the transgenic seed technology or there are at work other mechanisms that demand explanation? More importantly, are we missing out on critical dimensions of assessing the technology amidst the ‘deceptive rhetoric, spin, and soundbite science portraying the wonders or horrors of the new technology’ propounded by the competing discourses of the pro and anti Bt camps? 

...

For a scientific evaluation of the hypothesized superiority of Bt cotton seeds in the causal sense, the use of these seeds should be the differentiating factor in attainment of higher yields and profitability in cotton production, ceteris paribus. Also, it should be borne in mind that in the absence of appropriate counterfactuals and adequate controls, any evidence that rejects the null hypothesis of Bt seeds not being superior to their non Bt counterparts, does not necessarily imply the superiority of Bt seeds, and vice versa. In the case of Bt cotton, the co-existence of scores of varieties with Bt genes and non Bt hybrids complicates the separability of the effects of the Bt strain.  Unfortunately, the Bt cotton discourse has failed to acknowledge this fundamental logic while attempting to establish the positive or negative impacts.

In this article, we argue that an improved understanding of risk and uncertainty is central to the assessment of Bt cotton technology by analyzing outcomes in two drought periods, across two cross-sections. First, we use unit-level data from the Situation Assessment Survey of Farmers from the 59th round of the National Sample Survey (NSS), for the period 2002-03 across specific regions of Gujarat (Saurashtra and Southern Plains) and Maharashtra (Western Vidarbha).   Then we employ data from our surveys and ethnographic inquiries in the similar agro-ecological zones in the two states for the period 2009-10. Furthermore, the Gujarat sample provides interesting comparisons across Bt and non Bt growers and ethnographic findings from the field in Wardha district of Vidarbha allow us to draw critical inferences on the Bt technology.

By taking up the analysis in two drought periods – one at a time when the legal (official) commercial transgenic varieties were introduced, and the other at a time when the technological diffusion can be assumed to have played out well, the findings of this article attempt to sensitize Bt cotton analysis to issues of risk and technological uncertainty. We believe, this article has two important contributions to improving our understanding of the Bt cotton debate. First, we argue for the need to consider the fundamental aspect of risk in the evaluation of the impact of Bt seeds. This assumes significance at a time of crisis in the Indian agriculture and spate of farmers’ suicides among predominantly cotton growers.

Second, our study is a contribution in mixed-methods research paradigm. In this context, we introduce a methodological innovation that combines quantitative and qualitative findings from the field with secondary data from a nationally representative sample that provides a rough baseline approximation in the context of Bt cotton evaluation for the two major cotton growing regions of the country, namely, Saurashtra and Southern Plains in Gujarat and Western Vidarbha in Maharashtra. It is quite likely that some farmers in the nationally representative sample would have already used illegal Bt seeds Nevertheless, the analysis can be safely assumed to be representative of non Bt usage scenario and hence a valid benchmark for conditions of cotton production in the relevant regions. For the current purpose we compare and contrast results from the NSS survey for the crop season of 2002-03 with that of some location specific and somewhat independent surveys in the above-mentioned two cotton growing regions during 2009-10.

...
Conclusion
In this article we argue that the perceived benefits and costs of introduction of the genetically modified seed technology, needs to be re-evaluated from the perspective that by being a substantial addition to cost in the farmers input vector, it also has risk considerations that need to be analyzed. Its dynamic interaction with a host of other factors like changing pest ecology, price risks, multi crop systems and market dynamics needs attention.

Using data from the Situation Assessment Survey of Farmers of the NSS 59th round, for a drought period 2002-03, we derive baseline scenarios for regions in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Data from the field and ethnographic evidence in similar regions provide changes in conditions of cotton production in the drought year 2009-10. First, we show that Bt technology is first order stochastically dominated by non Bt technology for our sample of cotton growers in Gujarat and the Bt technology adds substantial input costs to the production system.    

Second, findings from the village level study in Maharashtra provide evidence of technology uncertainty, rampant deskilling and sub-optimal production decision making by farmers with limited information. Widespread institutional failures in the market for seeds emerge as a major concern in the farmers’ adjustment process and demands immediate attention.

Last but not the least, we provide the first evidence on the riskiness of Bt cotton technology by employing a simple risk framework (Mishra 2008) which takes the ratio of  costs with that of net returns from cultivation of a specific crop. In this theoretical framework Bt technology can be both risk increasing or risk decreasing given the actual conditions under which the production occurs, but empirical evidence presented in this analysis indicate that Bt cotton has been risk increasing.

Even though our datasets are limited in terms of external validity and we employed a mixed-methods framework to address our core research question, we get substantive qualitative and quantitative confirmation on the Bt technology being associated with increasing risk in a drought year. This perspective is critical for the technology evaluation because the farmers stand to lose more in bad crop years than they would have in the case of traditional varieties. Moreover, if the net gains from Bt (at higher expected yields) are offset by the high intensity losses (frequent or otherwise), the yield advantage promised by Bt seeds should be taken with a pinch of salt because the absolute returns are so low that an increase in returns in such years would not lead to an increase in savings that can be used to compensate in a bad year. The riskiness of this technology becomes even more important from the fact that around 65 per cent of India’s cotton is produced in rainfed conditions and 35 per cent is irrigated.

We would like to emphasize that this article is not an addition to the existing literature on the productivity or socio-economic impact of Bt cotton technology, rather it is an attempt to introduce a new perspective in evaluating the technology by analyzing farm level data from a nationally representative sample and field level data from an ongoing panel data based study in one of the most challenging socio-economic and institutional contexts where the merit of the technology could be put to test. The contribution of our paper is that it introduces an alternative perspective on how the inherent riskiness of a so-called innovation like Bt cotton should be identified, irrespective of its potential benefits or observed merits across different parts of the country and among different groups of farmers. We demonstrate how a neglect of the simple economics of crop production and the associated risk factors can play out against the farmers who make a conscious decision to adopt a particular technology given multiple constraints, with the hope that it will pay off well.   

There are certain methodological issues in Bt cotton evaluation that have not been dealt with in this paper but could be taken up as future research. Bt hybrids outperforming the earlier non Bt varieties should not be taken as a positive increment in yield on account of Bt alone, and the separability of effects of the hybrid impacts from Bt traits in a seed should be strived at. Variability of yield and other dimensions like price risks need to be assessed rigorously. Moreover, Bt technology could also induce moral hazard in farming practices as the farmer would expect the superior technology to be causing higher yields. An analysis of the dynamic performance of the technology over an appropriate period of time across different agroclimatic conditions could throw more light and also help us study the associated effects on the ecology and environment. Despite these limitations, our analysis does suggest that the proposition – to Bt or not to Bt; demands more non reductionist analyses that take cognizance of the localized variations and institutional realities.